{ "ticker": { "uuid": "57c38aa5-f4ac-46a3-a039-a2997d09fd9e", "symbol": "TAGM-B", "name": "TagMaster AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 34.473, "architecture_energy": 23.212, "architecture_maturity": 74.411, "architecture_confidence": 95.32, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.49, "rotation_up": 23.18, "upward_expansion": 56.28, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 30.08, "downward_expansion": 19.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.033332, 39.121817, 38.048095, 35.204839 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 36.299999, "trend_reference": 31.088333, "distance_from_trend": 0.167641, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.452244, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.866109, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 31.975677, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.736842, "excess_performance": 0.675348, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.167641, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.326388, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.866109, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044598, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.319757, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.318947, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.736842, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.57818, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 132876, "relative_activity": 1.504957, "balance": 1.57818, "dry_up": 1.354306, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.119093, "annualized_volatility": 0.50865, "from_high_reference": -0.196903, "from_low_reference": 1.630435 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.088333, "fair_value_reference": 19.452244, "structural_low": 21.299999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.009106, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.009983, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.201031, "worst_return": -0.098266, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.012278, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.035999, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.189655, "worst_return": -0.191542, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.162712, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.032486, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.484472, "worst_return": -0.255319, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.218855, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.181818, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.039286, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.016077, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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41.273334, 39.347273, 34.634286, 31.24914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 40.799999, "volume": 7665, "typical_volume": 89603.7, "trend": 27.665, "fair_value": 18.829167, "relative_strength": 62.363488, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.782277, "energy": 65.157214, "activity_lines": [ 41.08, 40.025455, 35.564286, 32.149032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 42.599998, "volume": 67946, "typical_volume": 88198.45, "trend": 28.505, "fair_value": 18.996474, "relative_strength": 69.973463, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.102628, "energy": 65.273644, "activity_lines": [ 41.513332, 40.816363, 36.582857, 33.112581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 35.0, "volume": 149239, "typical_volume": 86089.0, "trend": 29.091667, "fair_value": 19.089423, "relative_strength": 39.314239, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.696969, "energy": 39.491293, "activity_lines": [ 39.286666, 39.996363, 36.79, 33.531613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.0, "volume": 100600, "typical_volume": 86263.9, "trend": 29.85, "fair_value": 19.211218, "relative_strength": 54.181903, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.799926, "energy": 35.304423, "activity_lines": [ 39.246666, 40.056363, 37.425714, 34.235376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.099998, "volume": 95584, "typical_volume": 86426.4, "trend": 30.523333, "fair_value": 19.334615, "relative_strength": 46.601461, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.164131, "energy": 30.02518, "activity_lines": [ 39.099999, 39.874545, 37.904286, 34.83215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.299999, "volume": 132876, "typical_volume": 88292.25, "trend": 31.088333, "fair_value": 19.452244, "relative_strength": 31.975677, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.473259, "energy": 23.211609, "activity_lines": [ 38.033332, 39.121817, 38.048095, 35.204839 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }