{ "ticker": { "uuid": "57c4ba92-ffa0-4884-bb9f-7e8d840e5eea", "symbol": "BGIP4", "name": "Banco do Estado de Sergipe S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 67.886, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.321, "architecture_energy": 19.191, "architecture_maturity": 28.198, "architecture_confidence": 58.431, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.46, "rotation_up": 24.85, "upward_expansion": 17.79, "deceleration": 43.63, "rotation_down": 30.66, "downward_expansion": 56.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.897333, 32.805636, 32.991535, 33.528101 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 32.77, "trend_reference": 34.059784, "distance_from_trend": -0.037868, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.674094, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.384214, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.76568, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.053755, "excess_performance": 0.003294, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.037868, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022545, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.384214, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.158508, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.017657, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019722, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.053755, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.176471, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8800, "relative_activity": 1.52381, "balance": 1.176471, "dry_up": 0.640693, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043074, "annualized_volatility": 0.272091, "from_high_reference": -0.160837, "from_low_reference": 0.433579 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.059784, "fair_value_reference": 23.674094, "structural_low": 30.459999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.004224, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": 0.005534, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.086183, "worst_return": -0.06086, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.011305, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.004381, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.137064, "worst_return": -0.053299, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.038616, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.066363, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.258359, "worst_return": -0.077157, "sufficient": false }, { 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.081365, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.062771, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012143, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.203287, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.134878, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013632, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.148594, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.067616, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009088, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 18.32616, "volume": 35876, "typical_volume": 4743.6, "trend": 14.166555, "fair_value": 14.02595, "relative_strength": 33.897045, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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22.922222, "relative_strength": 2.132895, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.100881, "energy": 55.380119, "activity_lines": [ 31.667333, 32.471272, 33.793631, 33.982766 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 32.560001, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 6690.0, "trend": 33.794917, "fair_value": 23.027376, "relative_strength": 0.597795, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.810879, "energy": 38.814675, "activity_lines": [ 32.003334, 32.286727, 33.618359, 33.907819 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 32.75, "volume": 400, "typical_volume": 6225.0, "trend": 33.875124, "fair_value": 23.131073, "relative_strength": 0.554905, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.362538, "energy": 29.538406, "activity_lines": [ 32.313334, 32.216545, 33.471047, 33.840405 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 33.740002, "volume": 2500, "typical_volume": 6320.0, "trend": 34.009574, "fair_value": 23.242476, "relative_strength": 1.524486, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.009814, "energy": 21.092533, "activity_lines": [ 32.890001, 32.41, 33.421359, 33.831687 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 33.0, "volume": 500, "typical_volume": 6185.0, "trend": 34.044212, "fair_value": 23.34977, "relative_strength": 1.769963, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.207161, "energy": 22.225603, "activity_lines": [ 33.031334, 32.524546, 33.302562, 33.766553 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.009998, "volume": 3200, "typical_volume": 5750.0, "trend": 34.077281, "fair_value": 23.457128, "relative_strength": 1.605282, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.405163, "energy": 21.335012, "activity_lines": [ 33.088666, 32.666182, 33.194344, 33.69983 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.709999, "volume": 2300, "typical_volume": 5690.0, "trend": 34.06452, "fair_value": 23.565237, "relative_strength": -1.50774, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.168207, "energy": 20.051931, "activity_lines": [ 32.987999, 32.744, 33.08056, 33.611618 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.77, "volume": 8800, "typical_volume": 5775.0, "trend": 34.059784, "fair_value": 23.674094, "relative_strength": 1.76568, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.321233, "energy": 19.191068, "activity_lines": [ 32.897333, 32.805636, 32.991535, 33.528101 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }