{ "ticker": { "uuid": "57cb7f65-f382-4dce-8a40-f8edaabc22a2", "symbol": "NG", "name": "NovaGold Resources Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.18, "architecture_energy": 49.698, "architecture_maturity": 41.634, "architecture_confidence": 92.305, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.69, "rotation_up": 23.8, "upward_expansion": 7.36, "deceleration": 53.52, "rotation_down": 54.36, "downward_expansion": 80.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.900667, 9.008182, 9.878381, 10.733548 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.56, "trend_reference": 11.809333, "distance_from_trend": -0.105792, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.303846, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.445814, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.913334, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.159236, "excess_performance": -0.279657, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.105792, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095255, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.445814, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.263627, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.209133, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.199494, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.159236, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.089216, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3471300, "relative_activity": 1.509793, "balance": 1.089216, "dry_up": 1.371298, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.128642, "annualized_volatility": 1.007654, "from_high_reference": -0.463687, "from_low_reference": 0.483146 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.809333, "fair_value_reference": 7.303846, "structural_low": 7.12, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.015385, "positive_rate": 0.419355, "directional_follow_through": 0.580645, "median_excess_return": -0.013234, "regime_survival": 0.774194, "best_return": 0.457346, "worst_return": -0.315682, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.031634, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.036137, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.589971, "worst_return": -0.422487, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.122795, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.16251, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.567986, "worst_return": -0.293187, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.083255, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.16067, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.813665, "worst_return": -0.443062, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.228856, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.024119, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.162479, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.180033, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.05625, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.146998, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.198374, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046957, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.415827, "energy": 88.2628, "activity_lines": [ 8.514, 9.375091, 10.446667, 11.324989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.36, "volume": 3909000, "typical_volume": 2356230.0, "trend": 12.073667, "fair_value": 7.258782, "relative_strength": -35.692972, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.083114, "energy": 82.036487, "activity_lines": [ 8.278667, 9.081818, 10.158714, 11.074129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.16, "volume": 2846300, "typical_volume": 2382625.0, "trend": 11.925333, "fair_value": 7.273782, "relative_strength": -36.851787, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.465273, "energy": 81.049122, "activity_lines": [ 8.162667, 8.804, 9.889714, 10.821634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.56, "volume": 3471300, "typical_volume": 2299190.0, "trend": 11.809333, "fair_value": 7.303846, "relative_strength": -20.913334, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.180209, "energy": 49.698121, "activity_lines": [ 8.900667, 9.008182, 9.878381, 10.733548 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }