{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "57ce5125-74a9-4337-a53c-b446ffb1819e",
    "symbol": "THAL",
    "name": "Thales S.A.",
    "exchange": "VIE",
    "country": "AT",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^ATX",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 89.581,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": 40.448,
    "architecture_energy": 39.979,
    "architecture_maturity": 12.456,
    "architecture_confidence": 73.638,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 41.78,
        "rotation_up": 65.09,
        "upward_expansion": 43.18,
        "deceleration": 29.19,
        "rotation_down": 19.79,
        "downward_expansion": 22.85
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        246.526669,
        239.03091,
        236.258362,
        238.203736
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 267.0,
    "trend_reference": 241.475464,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.105702,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 188.649723,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.415321,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -9.502374,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.073439,
    "excess_performance": -0.100808,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.105702,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.0059,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.415321,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.158372,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.095024,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.117911,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.073439,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.338346,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 20,
      "relative_activity": 0.541272,
      "balance": 1.338346,
      "dry_up": 0.845737,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.052259,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.412824,
      "from_high_reference": -0.026215,
      "from_low_reference": 0.247081
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 241.475464,
      "fair_value_reference": 188.649723,
      "structural_low": 214.100006,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 16,
        "median_return": 0.00337,
        "positive_rate": 0.5625,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5625,
        "median_excess_return": -0.021104,
        "regime_survival": 0.625,
        "best_return": 0.154704,
        "worst_return": -0.093701,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.065401,
        "positive_rate": 0.833333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.833333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.016792,
        "regime_survival": 0.166667,
        "best_return": 0.205806,
        "worst_return": -0.119193,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.119297,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": 0.029228,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.704462,
        "worst_return": -0.079823,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.122301,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.086279,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.197974,
        "worst_return": 0.046629,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-11-29",
        "end": "2024-12-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.016018,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-12-13",
        "end": "2025-01-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.098774,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-02-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.064123,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-02-21",
        "end": "2025-06-27",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.374645,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-07-04",
        "end": "2025-08-29",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.067601,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "end": "2025-09-19",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.101294,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-12-05",
        "end": "2026-01-02",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.031816,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "return": -0.04616,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "end": "2026-04-24",
        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "color": "blue",
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        "return": -0.016323,
        "active": false
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      {
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      {
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        "return": 0.084044,
        "active": true
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    ],
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 225.941818,
        "volume": 140,
        "typical_volume": 57.25,
        "trend": 241.592351,
        "fair_value": 179.754143,
        "relative_strength": -21.293444,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -24.545573,
        "energy": 31.747868,
        "activity_lines": [
          235.781969,
          242.110254,
          245.389077,
          243.687
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 217.949982,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 57.25,
        "trend": 240.778745,
        "fair_value": 180.320693,
        "relative_strength": -23.246989,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -34.494645,
        "energy": 48.107348,
        "activity_lines": [
          227.605962,
          237.363589,
          242.721844,
          242.161686
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 230.100006,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 57.25,
        "trend": 240.131088,
        "fair_value": 180.95982,
        "relative_strength": -20.033587,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -31.670246,
        "energy": 55.894551,
        "activity_lines": [
          226.10444,
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          241.246054,
          241.472735
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 240.100006,
        "volume": 12,
        "typical_volume": 50.35,
        "trend": 240.05909,
        "fair_value": 181.70454,
        "relative_strength": -18.156466,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -29.383293,
        "energy": 46.05477,
        "activity_lines": [
          230.421648,
          235.173745,
          240.723987,
          241.47073
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 232.199997,
        "volume": 41,
        "typical_volume": 49.55,
        "trend": 239.969358,
        "fair_value": 182.402859,
        "relative_strength": -19.372823,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -26.239568,
        "energy": 28.441374,
        "activity_lines": [
          231.569454,
          233.811538,
          239.547968,
          240.963692
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 235.0,
        "volume": 41,
        "typical_volume": 51.5,
        "trend": 240.025355,
        "fair_value": 183.111253,
        "relative_strength": -20.059701,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -11.457653,
        "energy": 11.242694,
        "activity_lines": [
          233.483333,
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          240.643088
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 233.5,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 48.0,
        "trend": 240.270403,
        "fair_value": 183.788831,
        "relative_strength": -23.19849,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Structural failure",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -35.337254,
        "energy": 18.197935,
        "activity_lines": [
          234.293334,
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          237.881618,
          240.222097
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 216.899994,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 45.05,
        "trend": 240.096378,
        "fair_value": 184.373325,
        "relative_strength": -26.674916,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -68.82785,
        "energy": 42.063877,
        "activity_lines": [
          228.533331,
          229.237574,
          235.501299,
          238.714329
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 240.0,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 43.8,
        "trend": 240.653782,
        "fair_value": 185.099536,
        "relative_strength": -20.248299,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -34.456363,
        "energy": 22.470898,
        "activity_lines": [
          231.353332,
          231.174994,
          235.472569,
          238.708111
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 222.699997,
        "volume": 92,
        "typical_volume": 45.3,
        "trend": 240.470079,
        "fair_value": 185.711518,
        "relative_strength": -24.41157,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -58.652327,
        "energy": 38.611569,
        "activity_lines": [
          228.413331,
          229.822577,
          233.837806,
          237.549803
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 224.100006,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 45.0,
        "trend": 240.388952,
        "fair_value": 186.310366,
        "relative_strength": -21.853847,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -56.091854,
        "energy": 41.825567,
        "activity_lines": [
          226.573334,
          228.851818,
          232.516256,
          236.493669
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 235.600006,
        "volume": 105,
        "typical_volume": 43.45,
        "trend": 240.737201,
        "fair_value": 187.00928,
        "relative_strength": -18.478873,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -46.268732,
        "energy": 23.699553,
        "activity_lines": [
          229.293336,
          230.005456,
          232.415703,
          236.184705
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 246.300003,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 35.95,
        "trend": 241.267811,
        "fair_value": 187.774058,
        "relative_strength": -14.312869,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -12.751336,
        "energy": 7.853281,
        "activity_lines": [
          235.440003,
          232.783638,
          233.339417,
          236.543595
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 267.0,
        "volume": 20,
        "typical_volume": 36.95,
        "trend": 241.475464,
        "fair_value": 188.649723,
        "relative_strength": -9.502374,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 40.447983,
        "energy": 39.979134,
        "activity_lines": [
          246.526669,
          239.03091,
          236.258362,
          238.203736
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}