{ "ticker": { "uuid": "57fa5428-56fd-42cd-bff7-b78e76bcfc56", "symbol": "603977", "name": "Jiangxi Guotai Group Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.159, "architecture_energy": 75.47, "architecture_maturity": 18.277, "architecture_confidence": 82.379, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.84, "rotation_up": 11.34, "upward_expansion": 19.8, "deceleration": 34.2, "rotation_down": 73.96, "downward_expansion": 90.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.538, 12.418632, 13.193348, 13.666156 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.03, "trend_reference": 14.210732, "distance_from_trend": -0.153457, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.784286, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.020851, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.150887, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.177717, "excess_performance": -0.134513, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.153457, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002908, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.020851, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.261122, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.111509, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114523, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.177717, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.859034, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 53513466, "relative_activity": 0.656423, "balance": 0.859034, "dry_up": 0.756062, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.127218, "annualized_volatility": 0.579763, "from_high_reference": -0.31492, "from_low_reference": 0.170233 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.210732, "fair_value_reference": 11.784286, "structural_low": 10.28, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.012941, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.307692, "median_excess_return": 0.02442, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.206564, "worst_return": -0.051819, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.103232, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.117814, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.304062, "worst_return": 0.070647, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.147649, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.149555, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.415972, "worst_return": 0.084915, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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14.461743 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.2, "volume": 88877334, "typical_volume": 95537558.8, "trend": 14.489732, "fair_value": 11.739825, "relative_strength": -14.267971, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.416697, "energy": 47.034907, "activity_lines": [ 13.193557, 13.589604, 13.984233, 14.24662 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.75, "volume": 63168560, "typical_volume": 91070912.65, "trend": 14.374398, "fair_value": 11.751401, "relative_strength": -18.493397, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.200127, "energy": 75.165041, "activity_lines": [ 12.22175, 13.029578, 13.641605, 14.005347 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.36, "volume": 40986024, "typical_volume": 89636216.65, "trend": 14.273065, "fair_value": 11.764631, "relative_strength": -13.987207, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.594156, "energy": 77.581833, "activity_lines": [ 11.636667, 12.643824, 13.378786, 13.81087 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.03, "volume": 53513466, "typical_volume": 81522868.8, "trend": 14.210732, "fair_value": 11.784286, "relative_strength": -11.150887, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.159153, "energy": 75.469684, "activity_lines": [ 11.538, 12.418632, 13.193348, 13.666156 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }