{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5801c01a-8d6d-4857-bd41-c5928f617ac6", "symbol": "SOLT", "name": "SolTech Energy Sweden AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 17.313, "architecture_energy": 16.898, "architecture_maturity": 32.663, "architecture_confidence": 70.907, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.74, "rotation_up": 22.43, "upward_expansion": 54.16, "deceleration": 79.14, "rotation_down": 28.36, "downward_expansion": 24.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.203, 0.20046, 0.223025, 0.207385 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.205, "trend_reference": 0.181293, "distance_from_trend": 0.130764, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.041099, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.93259, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -41.430072, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 1.446301, "excess_performance": 1.384806, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.130764, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053439, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.93259, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008274, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.414301, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.254888, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.446301, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.982026, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17839890, "relative_activity": 0.219552, "balance": 0.982026, "dry_up": 0.224234, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.182777, "annualized_volatility": 1.201466, "from_high_reference": -0.875607, "from_low_reference": 1.827586 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.181293, "fair_value_reference": 3.041099, "structural_low": 0.0725, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.07048, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.060507, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": -0.049371, "worst_return": -0.172032, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.505661, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.53028, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.197942, "worst_return": -0.81338, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.63054, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.687951, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.341564, "worst_return": -0.919517, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"color": "orange", "start": "2023-07-21", "end": "2023-07-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00597, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-08-04", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.771283, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.378806, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.089494, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048724, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040241, "active": false }, { 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0.193593, 0.221507, 0.225327, 0.201231 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.182, "volume": 12204965, "typical_volume": 92074649.35, "trend": 0.176863, "fair_value": 3.22732, "relative_strength": -59.130182, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.152403, "energy": 16.972343, "activity_lines": [ 0.1886, 0.2093, 0.223469, 0.201616 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.207, "volume": 23920536, "typical_volume": 88441667.9, "trend": 0.178423, "fair_value": 3.163839, "relative_strength": -49.865257, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.922887, "energy": 14.372369, "activity_lines": [ 0.19404, 0.203738, 0.223635, 0.20356 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.2125, "volume": 18915883, "typical_volume": 85771937.8, "trend": 0.179793, "fair_value": 3.102252, "relative_strength": -43.889389, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.492169, "energy": 12.775495, "activity_lines": [ 0.200567, 0.201576, 0.223943, 0.205758 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.205, "volume": 17839890, "typical_volume": 81255844.75, "trend": 0.181293, "fair_value": 3.041099, "relative_strength": -41.430072, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.313113, "energy": 16.897743, "activity_lines": [ 0.203, 0.20046, 0.223025, 0.207385 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }