{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5808b5b6-fa76-4216-bf9c-db570a87df8a", "symbol": "JULZ", "name": "TRUESHARES STRUCTURED OUTCOME (JULY) ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 71.675, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.718, "architecture_energy": 57.342, "architecture_maturity": 41.343, "architecture_confidence": 83.67, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.93, "rotation_up": 56.23, "upward_expansion": 81.75, "deceleration": 56.35, "rotation_down": 25.8, "downward_expansion": 8.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.654873, 45.404204, 45.071499, 44.320746 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 46.5298, "trend_reference": 43.49137, "distance_from_trend": 0.069863, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 37.313466, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.246998, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.683417, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.095332, "excess_performance": -0.030293, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.069863, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025157, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.246998, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002702, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.026834, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003895, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.095332, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.665575, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 52480, "relative_activity": 2.292639, "balance": 2.665575, "dry_up": 1.141165, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019046, "annualized_volatility": 0.12774, "from_high_reference": -0.002577, "from_low_reference": 0.185077 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.49137, "fair_value_reference": 37.313466, "structural_low": 39.2631, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.013953, "positive_rate": 0.705882, "directional_follow_through": 0.705882, "median_excess_return": -0.00443, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.054829, "worst_return": -0.064441, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.035583, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.011655, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.099786, "worst_return": -0.043601, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.081666, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.024644, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.120912, "worst_return": -0.078563, "sufficient": true }, { 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"relative_strength": -1.907299, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.316985, "energy": 46.076475, "activity_lines": [ 45.1305, 45.123951, 44.678259, 43.981083 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.3575, "volume": 7013, "typical_volume": 20391.25, "trend": 43.365067, "fair_value": 37.205645, "relative_strength": -1.89705, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.019806, "energy": 46.200165, "activity_lines": [ 45.23622, 45.157755, 44.829999, 44.116569 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.5298, "volume": 52480, "typical_volume": 22890.65, "trend": 43.49137, "fair_value": 37.313466, "relative_strength": -2.683417, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.718284, "energy": 57.341866, "activity_lines": [ 45.654873, 45.404204, 45.071499, 44.320746 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }