{ "ticker": { "uuid": "58090947-4acc-4386-a789-3ac9c8f054c9", "symbol": "SSTK", "name": "Shutterstock", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.24, "architecture_energy": 89.044, "architecture_maturity": 40.0, "architecture_confidence": 84.959, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.35, "rotation_up": 8.39, "upward_expansion": 21.87, "deceleration": 37.04, "rotation_down": 84.21, "downward_expansion": 99.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.096667, 8.049091, 10.932448, 12.45449 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 5.96, "trend_reference": 14.272687, "distance_from_trend": -0.582419, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.430187, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.765633, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -68.395341, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.66546, "excess_performance": -0.791085, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.582419, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.172266, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.765633, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.358532, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.683953, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.495662, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.66546, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.239602, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6793863, "relative_activity": 1.972322, "balance": 0.239602, "dry_up": 2.111029, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.35382, "annualized_volatility": 0.772514, "from_high_reference": -0.784505, "from_low_reference": 0.152337 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.272687, "fair_value_reference": 25.430187, "structural_low": 5.1721, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.036221, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.033107, "regime_survival": 0.871795, "best_return": 0.19897, "worst_return": -0.449541, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.095978, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.145728, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.67862, "worst_return": -0.672065, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.15376, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.261335, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.289623, "worst_return": -0.697479, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.313142, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.117249, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030767, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.040995, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037875, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", 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"modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.743584, "energy": 88.457219, "activity_lines": [ 11.001333, 12.436068, 14.033631, 14.828518 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.41, "volume": 6145769, "typical_volume": 2560387.75, "trend": 15.504197, "fair_value": 26.074739, "relative_strength": -61.0981, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.29297, "energy": 93.84885, "activity_lines": [ 9.470667, 11.31168, 13.314049, 14.284734 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.58, "volume": 9311407, "typical_volume": 2929853.6, "trend": 15.10938, "fair_value": 25.833616, "relative_strength": -70.038968, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.005014, "energy": 95.530948, "activity_lines": [ 7.788667, 10.021779, 12.461193, 13.644463 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.4, "volume": 6835577, "typical_volume": 3189781.75, "trend": 14.695211, "fair_value": 25.629669, "relative_strength": -70.857962, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.249782, "energy": 92.969716, "activity_lines": [ 6.556, 8.89008, 11.645835, 13.018052 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.96, "volume": 6793863, "typical_volume": 3444601.45, "trend": 14.272687, "fair_value": 25.430187, "relative_strength": -68.395341, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.239803, "energy": 89.043646, "activity_lines": [ 6.096667, 8.049091, 10.932448, 12.45449 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }