{ "ticker": { "uuid": "580a61f6-afd3-4ef6-b5c1-16f365022511", "symbol": "GNP", "name": "GenusPlus Group Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.9, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 9.719, "architecture_energy": 18.77, "architecture_maturity": 59.455, "architecture_confidence": 70.662, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.34, "rotation_up": 16.69, "upward_expansion": 41.11, "deceleration": 87.44, "rotation_down": 37.12, "downward_expansion": 30.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.070667, 9.419636, 9.492996, 9.154911 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 9.24, "trend_reference": 8.640662, "distance_from_trend": 0.069363, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.96824, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.328488, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 16.728586, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.358655, "excess_performance": 0.294949, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.069363, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.148608, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.328488, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.578363, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.167286, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.395055, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.358655, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.641482, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2945523, "relative_activity": 1.287594, "balance": 0.641482, "dry_up": 1.540512, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095446, "annualized_volatility": 0.359352, "from_high_reference": -0.165312, "from_low_reference": 1.071066 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.640662, "fair_value_reference": 3.96824, "structural_low": 6.661236, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.021433, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.02077, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.067293, "worst_return": -0.024428, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.189313, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.198534, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.189313, "worst_return": 0.189313, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.570825, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.558556, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.570825, "worst_return": 0.570825, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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3.765722, "relative_strength": 30.782824, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.235873, "energy": 42.466591, "activity_lines": [ 9.996, 9.977636, 9.50856, 8.990812 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.07, "volume": 3215625, "typical_volume": 2001665.15, "trend": 8.36157, "fair_value": 3.816443, "relative_strength": 24.843524, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.609236, "energy": 27.294736, "activity_lines": [ 9.65, 9.828364, 9.516408, 9.043048 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.11, "volume": 3900702, "typical_volume": 2083332.95, "trend": 8.459483, "fair_value": 3.867451, "relative_strength": 24.162593, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.507187, "energy": 24.506154, "activity_lines": [ 9.396667, 9.693273, 9.521914, 9.091334 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.75, "volume": 4034560, "typical_volume": 2209301.8, "trend": 8.545064, "fair_value": 3.916306, "relative_strength": 15.329488, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.38114, "energy": 21.213502, "activity_lines": [ 9.082667, 9.504182, 9.48646, 9.110077 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.24, "volume": 2945523, "typical_volume": 2287617.4, "trend": 8.640662, "fair_value": 3.96824, "relative_strength": 16.728586, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.719433, "energy": 18.770117, "activity_lines": [ 9.070667, 9.419636, 9.492996, 9.154911 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }