{ "ticker": { "uuid": "58110df2-b176-46fe-b1c0-f11b03109cf9", "symbol": "304940", "name": "Samsung Kodex Us Nasdaq 100 Futures Etf(H)", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 41.368, "architecture_energy": 25.656, "architecture_maturity": 67.19, "architecture_confidence": 76.765, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.12, "rotation_up": 24.73, "upward_expansion": 56.93, "deceleration": 91.13, "rotation_down": 29.34, "downward_expansion": 20.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 31925.333333, 32175.363636, 32046.904762, 31168.010753 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 32430.0, "trend_reference": 30100.833333, "distance_from_trend": 0.077379, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24504.859363, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.323411, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.404913, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.185524, "excess_performance": -0.044305, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.077379, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046938, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.323411, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04228, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.114049, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.272165, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.185524, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.565874, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19569, "relative_activity": 0.216327, "balance": 1.565874, "dry_up": 1.140809, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030266, "annualized_volatility": 0.173089, "from_high_reference": -0.032374, "from_low_reference": 0.291775 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30100.833333, "fair_value_reference": 24504.859363, "structural_low": 25105.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.031115, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.028697, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.09738, "worst_return": -0.005598, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.063678, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.045847, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.138799, "worst_return": -0.121278, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.129502, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.066718, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.195936, "worst_return": -0.019847, "sufficient": true 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30228.889142 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 32670.0, "volume": 3192, "typical_volume": 79615.8, "trend": 29522.350781, "fair_value": 24077.165239, "relative_strength": -34.722309, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.945761, "energy": 55.554749, "activity_lines": [ 32687.666667, 32705.636364, 31346.166667, 30440.186316 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 32550.0, "volume": 19087, "typical_volume": 78619.95, "trend": 29646.303776, "fair_value": 24164.759678, "relative_strength": -28.792449, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.753996, "energy": 53.108636, "activity_lines": [ 32606.333333, 32727.454545, 31578.785714, 30635.518523 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32505.0, "volume": 68879, "typical_volume": 79341.0, "trend": 29792.733333, "fair_value": 24252.924229, "relative_strength": -21.195368, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.122707, "energy": 46.733438, "activity_lines": [ 32560.0, 32695.545455, 31784.285714, 30819.950538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31250.0, "volume": 189936, "typical_volume": 86856.05, "trend": 29875.833333, "fair_value": 24332.853115, "relative_strength": -21.874709, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.525542, "energy": 34.376444, "activity_lines": [ 32094.666667, 32423.181818, 31847.97619, 30913.967742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31355.0, "volume": 134408, "typical_volume": 91609.55, "trend": 29971.5, "fair_value": 24414.122859, "relative_strength": -19.532936, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.637663, "energy": 25.007862, "activity_lines": [ 31804.0, 32190.181818, 31905.904762, 31009.397849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32430.0, "volume": 19569, "typical_volume": 90460.4, "trend": 30100.833333, "fair_value": 24504.859363, "relative_strength": -11.404913, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.368111, "energy": 25.655875, "activity_lines": [ 31925.333333, 32175.363636, 32046.904762, 31168.010753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }