{ "ticker": { "uuid": "581256ba-c851-4930-925f-ecbc15661241", "symbol": "SVCO", "name": "Silvaco Group, Inc. Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 85.304, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -5.125, "architecture_energy": 25.94, "architecture_maturity": 39.358, "architecture_confidence": 86.121, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.28, "rotation_up": 14.17, "upward_expansion": 42.8, "deceleration": 84.01, "rotation_down": 51.3, "downward_expansion": 39.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.959333, 9.243091, 9.840238, 9.13129 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.65, "trend_reference": 7.895667, "distance_from_trend": -0.031114, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.375254, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.086595, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.068004, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.966581, "excess_performance": 0.779127, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.031114, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.327152, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.086595, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.494486, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.03068, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.792659, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.966581, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.708545, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2706266, "relative_activity": 1.166881, "balance": 0.708545, "dry_up": 0.881188, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.311564, "annualized_volatility": 0.988885, "from_high_reference": -0.468381, "from_low_reference": 1.491857 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.895667, "fair_value_reference": 8.375254, "structural_low": 3.07, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.068075, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.057214, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.214976, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.141956, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.087925, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-05-10", "close": 18.91, "volume": 4864061, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-05-17", "close": 18.9, "volume": 1084959, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-05-24", "close": 18.96, "volume": 564990, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, 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7.65, "volume": 2706266, "typical_volume": 2319230.85, "trend": 7.895667, "fair_value": 8.375254, "relative_strength": 3.068004, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -5.124544, "energy": 25.939887, "activity_lines": [ 7.959333, 9.243091, 9.840238, 9.13129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }