{ "ticker": { "uuid": "581f9e89-1821-4148-88b3-a90fa17e025b", "symbol": "SGLD", "name": "Invesco Physical Gold ETC", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 51.934, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.952, "architecture_energy": 47.391, "architecture_maturity": 59.527, "architecture_confidence": 63.468, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.75, "rotation_up": 26.07, "upward_expansion": 19.36, "deceleration": 66.76, "rotation_down": 46.0, "downward_expansion": 69.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 347.62534, 347.030731, 356.690766, 366.928606 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 362.160004, "trend_reference": 379.591336, "distance_from_trend": -0.045921, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 264.357821, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.369961, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.738752, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.098791, "excess_performance": -0.215453, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.045921, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002674, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.369961, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.187525, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.097388, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.166057, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.098791, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.544764, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24723, "relative_activity": 1.279996, "balance": 0.544764, "dry_up": 1.084616, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033831, "annualized_volatility": 0.223759, "from_high_reference": -0.188601, "from_low_reference": 0.320932 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 379.591336, "fair_value_reference": 264.357821, 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"date": "2026-07-03", "close": 350.459991, "volume": 4140, "typical_volume": 20969.25, "trend": 382.094002, "fair_value": 258.08186, "relative_strength": -10.184536, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.722968, "energy": 87.22625, "activity_lines": [ 349.270666, 357.906184, 370.917241, 378.476433 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 345.149994, "volume": 22293, "typical_volume": 21176.1, "trend": 381.891335, "fair_value": 259.335898, "relative_strength": -11.71396, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.708506, "energy": 87.761594, "activity_lines": [ 347.231997, 354.311637, 367.313669, 376.092948 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 337.320007, "volume": 24825, "typical_volume": 21341.7, "trend": 381.230335, "fair_value": 260.539744, "relative_strength": -14.351068, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.74498, "energy": 88.637434, "activity_lines": [ 343.732666, 349.914729, 363.287002, 373.217379 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 344.290009, "volume": 17054, "typical_volume": 20038.35, "trend": 380.480003, "fair_value": 261.78827, "relative_strength": -12.491123, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.870431, "energy": 63.267421, "activity_lines": [ 343.440002, 347.653821, 360.346051, 370.834132 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 337.730011, "volume": 17195, "typical_volume": 20014.1, "trend": 379.94567, "fair_value": 262.994744, "relative_strength": -14.833992, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.635449, "energy": 66.512417, "activity_lines": [ 341.235339, 344.78364, 357.148337, 368.076068 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 362.160004, "volume": 24723, "typical_volume": 19314.9, "trend": 379.591336, "fair_value": 264.357821, "relative_strength": -9.738752, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.952484, "energy": 47.390794, "activity_lines": [ 347.62534, 347.030731, 356.690766, 366.928606 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }