{ "ticker": { "uuid": "58257ca4-924f-4870-b2dd-0122f3e5dc1c", "symbol": "000069", "name": "Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.087, "architecture_energy": 45.548, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 68.106, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.86, "rotation_up": 27.43, "upward_expansion": 19.58, "deceleration": 66.99, "rotation_down": 45.52, "downward_expansion": 71.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.746667, 1.727455, 1.836524, 1.966903 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.85, "trend_reference": 2.159, "distance_from_trend": -0.143122, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.651538, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.302292, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.621755, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.324818, "excess_performance": -0.332217, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.143122, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11201, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.302292, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083779, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.226218, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019531, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.324818, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.581633, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 410812490, "relative_activity": 2.006114, "balance": 0.581633, "dry_up": 1.449913, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077755, "annualized_volatility": 0.288965, "from_high_reference": -0.368601, "from_low_reference": 0.15625 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.159, "fair_value_reference": 2.651538, "structural_low": 1.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.030169, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.575, "median_excess_return": -0.035172, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 0.380208, "worst_return": -0.151724, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.09353, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.113834, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.631579, "worst_return": -0.242152, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.029536, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.163864, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.357843, "worst_return": -0.348291, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"fair_value": 2.704038, "relative_strength": -29.980049, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.139017, "energy": 76.499835, "activity_lines": [ 1.670667, 1.745455, 1.91, 2.055656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.64, "volume": 255045720, "typical_volume": 198633966.75, "trend": 2.205667, "fair_value": 2.685897, "relative_strength": -30.014883, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.752929, "energy": 67.751505, "activity_lines": [ 1.656, 1.712727, 1.871286, 2.016946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.76, "volume": 256392985, "typical_volume": 197872787.25, "trend": 2.18, "fair_value": 2.668782, "relative_strength": -23.09323, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.758525, "energy": 62.67403, "activity_lines": [ 1.690667, 1.710182, 1.847905, 1.988194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.85, "volume": 410812490, "typical_volume": 204780209.65, "trend": 2.159, "fair_value": 2.651538, "relative_strength": -22.621755, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.086775, "energy": 45.547928, "activity_lines": [ 1.746667, 1.727455, 1.836524, 1.966903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }