{ "ticker": { "uuid": "582c8f67-9ad5-46eb-a631-50296d6ab5ec", "symbol": "IBG", "name": "Innovation Beverage Group Limited", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.899, "architecture_energy": 57.818, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.72, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.77, "rotation_up": 29.71, "upward_expansion": 9.08, "deceleration": 60.99, "rotation_down": 55.22, "downward_expansion": 84.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.941657, 0.984538, 0.999086, 1.287995 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.01, "trend_reference": 2.068232, "distance_from_trend": -0.51166, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.192877, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.923444, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -87.070555, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.788703, "excess_performance": -0.976157, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.51166, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.61378, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.923444, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020114, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.870706, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062581, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.788703, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.152106, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 177584, "relative_activity": 0.186422, "balance": 1.152106, "dry_up": 0.175968, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.20607, "annualized_volatility": 2.459204, "from_high_reference": -0.968923, "from_low_reference": 0.402778 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.068232, "fair_value_reference": 13.192877, "structural_low": 0.72, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.106847, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.166654, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.269095, "worst_return": -0.212037, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.121739, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.3399, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.121739, "worst_return": -0.121739, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.121739, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-09-27", "close": 63.2225, "volume": 712852, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-10-04", "close": 48.75, "volume": 299110, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 0.9, "volume": 276517, "typical_volume": 2428568.6, "trend": 2.938067, "fair_value": 13.579968, "relative_strength": -89.550579, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.022133, "energy": 69.441798, "activity_lines": [ 0.992667, 1.026455, 1.050833, 1.611731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.91495, "volume": 135483, "typical_volume": 1611607.15, "trend": 2.585232, "fair_value": 13.448041, "relative_strength": -88.764307, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.05307, "energy": 67.514408, "activity_lines": [ 0.95365, 1.010227, 1.016676, 1.481208 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.88, "volume": 80918, "typical_volume": 1163052.15, "trend": 2.299565, "fair_value": 13.318474, "relative_strength": -88.770983, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.238999, "energy": 65.558607, "activity_lines": [ 0.91932, 0.986101, 1.001167, 1.371193 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.01, "volume": 177584, "typical_volume": 952590.75, "trend": 2.068232, "fair_value": 13.192877, "relative_strength": -87.070555, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.899163, "energy": 57.818256, "activity_lines": [ 0.941657, 0.984538, 0.999086, 1.287995 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }