{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5832e119-b467-49a5-93a7-03ff4b989c1c", "symbol": "SAR", "name": "Saratoga Investment Corp", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 69.431, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.693, "architecture_energy": 74.913, "architecture_maturity": 10.353, "architecture_confidence": 83.438, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.48, "rotation_up": 9.12, "upward_expansion": 17.52, "deceleration": 37.29, "rotation_down": 73.07, "downward_expansion": 90.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.213071, 19.847789, 20.660806, 20.886625 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 20.01, "trend_reference": 21.161356, "distance_from_trend": -0.054408, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.137923, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.045568, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.256519, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.085586, "excess_performance": -0.211211, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.054408, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002861, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.045568, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085638, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.152565, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051923, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.085586, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.016945, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 851702, "relative_activity": 1.354465, "balance": 1.016945, "dry_up": 1.296137, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056016, "annualized_volatility": 0.364629, "from_high_reference": -0.123725, "from_low_reference": 0.169092 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.161356, "fair_value_reference": 19.137923, "structural_low": 17.115853, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.008562, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": 0.011009, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.214575, "worst_return": -0.063914, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.035578, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.032628, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.218815, "worst_return": -0.064496, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.063486, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.032802, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.13534, "worst_return": -0.104434, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.480821, "energy": 71.490738, "activity_lines": [ 19.991527, 20.845259, 21.219499, 21.293176 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.695171, "volume": 833967, "typical_volume": 620555.55, "trend": 21.28485, "fair_value": 19.111215, "relative_strength": -18.019799, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.038227, "energy": 82.257376, "activity_lines": [ 19.358186, 20.368494, 20.973331, 21.120828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.853102, "volume": 572165, "typical_volume": 616257.4, "trend": 21.20839, "fair_value": 19.121577, "relative_strength": -17.794009, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.52764, "energy": 83.258634, "activity_lines": [ 18.986821, 19.974499, 20.757373, 20.963941 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.01, "volume": 851702, "typical_volume": 628810.8, "trend": 21.161356, "fair_value": 19.137923, "relative_strength": -15.256519, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.69335, "energy": 74.913349, "activity_lines": [ 19.213071, 19.847789, 20.660806, 20.886625 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }