{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5833df9a-3368-4fb3-9ff9-d68ac2517eea", "symbol": "B2MB34", "name": "Bumble Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.201, "architecture_energy": 62.34, "architecture_maturity": 31.565, "architecture_confidence": 91.559, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.61, "rotation_up": 21.08, "upward_expansion": 16.18, "deceleration": 35.96, "rotation_down": 59.16, "downward_expansion": 87.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.911333, 2.982727, 3.14319, 3.243892 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.87, "trend_reference": 3.355, "distance_from_trend": -0.14456, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.188141, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.649493, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.604157, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.143284, "excess_performance": -0.086235, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.14456, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077367, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.649493, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021683, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.366042, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073383, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.143284, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.264808, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 193, "relative_activity": 0.497038, "balance": 1.264808, "dry_up": 0.305176, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099973, "annualized_volatility": 0.758418, "from_high_reference": -0.638083, "from_low_reference": 0.055147 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.355, "fair_value_reference": 8.188141, "structural_low": 2.72, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.000302, "regime_survival": 0.848485, "best_return": 0.589099, "worst_return": -0.357143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.004089, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.060199, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.4, "worst_return": -0.35953, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.235049, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.271848, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.51, "worst_return": -0.349541, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.449093, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.675434, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": -0.326, "worst_return": -0.496798, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-09-15", "end": "2023-09-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-09-29", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.017613, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-01-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.301273, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.071, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006342, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.153968, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.046, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.008571, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.054755, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.332143, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.089286, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.235714, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.105919, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 17.4, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 14.35, "trend": 19.271, "fair_value": 32.014476, "relative_strength": -24.80155, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", 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-54.218855, "energy": 34.363691, "activity_lines": [ 3.104667, 3.113818, 3.322333, 3.375441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.13, "volume": 112, "typical_volume": 596.8, "trend": 3.451667, "fair_value": 8.474936, "relative_strength": -37.719041, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.815062, "energy": 29.235443, "activity_lines": [ 3.131333, 3.107636, 3.295333, 3.352989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.8, "volume": 126, "typical_volume": 603.0, "trend": 3.416667, "fair_value": 8.374295, "relative_strength": -42.349273, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.208177, "energy": 35.931976, "activity_lines": [ 3.030667, 3.047636, 3.236762, 3.310946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.89, "volume": 43, "typical_volume": 395.15, "trend": 3.382667, "fair_value": 8.281282, "relative_strength": -39.649141, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.952921, "energy": 45.510438, "activity_lines": [ 2.98, 3.015273, 3.188571, 3.276968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.87, "volume": 193, "typical_volume": 388.3, "trend": 3.355, "fair_value": 8.188141, "relative_strength": -36.604157, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.201135, "energy": 62.339587, "activity_lines": [ 2.911333, 2.982727, 3.14319, 3.243892 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }