{ "ticker": { "uuid": "58347213-7802-4770-b442-c5e87aee22bc", "symbol": "601336", "name": "New China Life Insurance Company Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.46, "architecture_energy": 16.876, "architecture_maturity": 25.522, "architecture_confidence": 64.091, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.55, "rotation_up": 24.75, "upward_expansion": 17.45, "deceleration": 45.52, "rotation_down": 24.23, "downward_expansion": 51.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 60.866361, 60.588233, 60.636798, 62.508521 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 60.66, "trend_reference": 66.350915, "distance_from_trend": -0.08577, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 47.738663, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.270668, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.45667, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.270913, "excess_performance": -0.22771, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.08577, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036811, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.270668, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.153863, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.074567, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001572, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.270913, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.625582, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 95261685, "relative_activity": 1.023596, "balance": 0.625582, "dry_up": 1.307145, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070616, "annualized_volatility": 0.284468, "from_high_reference": -0.293419, "from_low_reference": 0.080321 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 66.350915, "fair_value_reference": 47.738663, "structural_low": 56.150002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.019936, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.026198, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.126668, "worst_return": -0.128854, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.013359, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.011632, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.446436, "worst_return": -0.292805, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.260039, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.206606, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.473391, "worst_return": -0.313937, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 60.551231, 59.98776, 60.951874, 63.684215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 61.037231, "volume": 146572887, "typical_volume": 91452954.45, "trend": 66.993696, "fair_value": 47.414367, "relative_strength": -4.172481, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.237172, "energy": 18.511987, "activity_lines": [ 60.883396, 60.222826, 60.803497, 63.278158 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 61.056572, "volume": 92481446, "typical_volume": 92924805.6, "trend": 66.652249, "fair_value": 47.57317, "relative_strength": -4.471272, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.013633, "energy": 17.440371, "activity_lines": [ 60.989526, 60.464732, 60.715833, 62.895118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 60.66, "volume": 95261685, "typical_volume": 93065687.2, "trend": 66.350915, "fair_value": 47.738663, "relative_strength": -7.45667, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.45998, "energy": 16.875615, "activity_lines": [ 60.866361, 60.588233, 60.636798, 62.508521 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }