{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5837e89f-0d26-4924-9a6a-79ed699cb882", "symbol": "XRMI", "name": "GLOBAL X FDS S&P 500 RISK MANAGED INCOME ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 82.431, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.977, "architecture_energy": 71.588, "architecture_maturity": 3.802, "architecture_confidence": 68.216, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.22, "rotation_up": 76.14, "upward_expansion": 93.05, "deceleration": 39.61, "rotation_down": 11.61, "downward_expansion": 15.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.263494, 17.177132, 17.083307, 17.028639 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 17.39, "trend_reference": 17.007021, "distance_from_trend": 0.022519, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.67749, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.109234, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.805528, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.013562, "excess_performance": -0.112063, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.022519, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005871, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.109234, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010734, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.078055, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008279, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.013562, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.691014, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 89261, "relative_activity": 1.926257, "balance": 1.691014, "dry_up": 1.0128, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.011946, "annualized_volatility": 0.061191, "from_high_reference": -0.000575, "from_low_reference": 0.09056 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.007021, "fair_value_reference": 15.67749, "structural_low": 16.376939, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.008466, "positive_rate": 0.730769, "directional_follow_through": 0.730769, "median_excess_return": -0.004033, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.027195, "worst_return": -0.035642, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.030394, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.02259, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.049714, "worst_return": -0.067987, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.012228, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.033124, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.092321, "worst_return": -0.038527, "sufficient": true 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.284962, "energy": 36.7861, "activity_lines": [ 17.112081, 17.068344, 16.986257, 16.976015 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.1546, "volume": 31209, "typical_volume": 69675.2, "trend": 16.98859, "fair_value": 15.638968, "relative_strength": -5.255132, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.489372, "energy": 47.779095, "activity_lines": [ 17.142096, 17.089096, 17.00906, 16.987036 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.24, "volume": 42140, "typical_volume": 69013.75, "trend": 16.996572, "fair_value": 15.657668, "relative_strength": -5.613426, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.804117, "energy": 63.974658, "activity_lines": [ 17.189154, 17.121539, 17.039819, 17.003256 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.39, "volume": 89261, "typical_volume": 46339.1, "trend": 17.007021, "fair_value": 15.67749, "relative_strength": -7.805528, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.976512, "energy": 71.588114, "activity_lines": [ 17.263494, 17.177132, 17.083307, 17.028639 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }