{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5851f813-3ffe-4893-ab09-171851ed9dc8", "symbol": "3687", "name": "MacroWell OMG Digital Entertainment Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 80.138, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.549, "architecture_energy": 34.852, "architecture_maturity": 13.069, "architecture_confidence": 62.543, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.23, "rotation_up": 9.85, "upward_expansion": 11.59, "deceleration": 51.26, "rotation_down": 65.04, "downward_expansion": 70.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 66.726667, 69.413789, 69.9725, 69.650167 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 65.800003, "trend_reference": 70.251237, "distance_from_trend": -0.063362, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 82.003443, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.197595, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -36.519387, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.070577, "excess_performance": -0.511949, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.063362, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030421, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.197595, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074258, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.365194, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08314, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.070577, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.849589, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 276088, "relative_activity": 0.28011, "balance": 2.849589, "dry_up": 0.518282, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.101012, "annualized_volatility": 0.346252, "from_high_reference": -0.23737, "from_low_reference": 0.113163 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 70.251237, "fair_value_reference": 82.003443, "structural_low": 59.110819, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.019841, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.611111, "median_excess_return": 0.019822, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.65, "worst_return": -0.068776, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.010341, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.094639, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.490909, "worst_return": -0.292096, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.112245, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.088148, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.200898, "worst_return": -0.252271, "sufficient": true 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"trend": 71.279091, "fair_value": 82.291571, "relative_strength": -34.811873, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.767235, "energy": 15.611045, "activity_lines": [ 69.960688, 71.937535, 70.663838, 70.328554 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 65.699997, "volume": 238001, "typical_volume": 1044929.25, "trend": 70.735906, "fair_value": 82.155619, "relative_strength": -35.21843, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.844208, "energy": 28.396453, "activity_lines": [ 67.998065, 70.609614, 70.301968, 69.968612 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 65.800003, "volume": 276088, "typical_volume": 985640.5, "trend": 70.251237, "fair_value": 82.003443, "relative_strength": -36.519387, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.548941, "energy": 34.852058, "activity_lines": [ 66.726667, 69.413789, 69.9725, 69.650167 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }