{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5856279c-8329-4c88-b9d4-0a2e8bb3ce71", "symbol": "DAT", "name": "PROSHARES TRUST BIG DATA REFINERS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 68.608, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.032, "architecture_energy": 73.315, "architecture_maturity": 26.307, "architecture_confidence": 76.331, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.31, "rotation_up": 71.18, "upward_expansion": 90.42, "deceleration": 44.5, "rotation_down": 15.95, "downward_expansion": 14.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.312207, 44.126827, 42.450918, 40.908763 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 48.6723, "trend_reference": 39.608387, "distance_from_trend": 0.228838, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 39.039122, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.246757, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.019939, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.322606, "excess_performance": 0.196981, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.228838, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016182, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.246757, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.195089, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.020199, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.202755, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.322606, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.641761, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17946, "relative_activity": 1.437618, "balance": 0.641761, "dry_up": 1.117066, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061193, "annualized_volatility": 0.364013, "from_high_reference": -0.009518, "from_low_reference": 0.526974 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.608387, "fair_value_reference": 39.039122, "structural_low": 31.875, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.005021, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.017516, "regime_survival": 0.647059, "best_return": 0.238162, "worst_return": -0.153637, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.008693, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.049493, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.233922, "worst_return": -0.096513, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.077455, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.02238, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.135478, "worst_return": -0.085598, "sufficient": false }, { 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.005576, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.043609, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.059608, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.103646, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018482, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": 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"mixed", "direction": 41.489543, "energy": 35.738799, "activity_lines": [ 42.797073, 42.400676, 40.313384, 39.567666 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 44.01, "volume": 7624, "typical_volume": 10841.05, "trend": 39.637277, "fair_value": 38.725073, "relative_strength": -5.189036, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.727501, "energy": 63.642024, "activity_lines": [ 43.388093, 42.783327, 40.82167, 39.844874 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 41.6515, "volume": 17531, "typical_volume": 11155.55, "trend": 39.48923, "fair_value": 38.800847, "relative_strength": -9.222608, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.296059, "energy": 55.639643, "activity_lines": [ 43.03862, 42.66006, 41.069649, 39.974824 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.7898, "volume": 12677, "typical_volume": 11701.1, "trend": 39.49681, "fair_value": 38.902083, "relative_strength": -3.058392, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.583903, "energy": 57.639152, "activity_lines": [ 43.656373, 43.073865, 41.596661, 40.316796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.6723, "volume": 17946, "typical_volume": 12483.15, "trend": 39.608387, "fair_value": 39.039122, "relative_strength": 2.019939, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.032159, "energy": 73.315473, "activity_lines": [ 45.312207, 44.126827, 42.450918, 40.908763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }