{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5856e42d-4443-49eb-be71-e4a8272c227b", "symbol": "601225", "name": "Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 27.332, "architecture_energy": 26.99, "architecture_maturity": 21.104, "architecture_confidence": 78.814, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.83, "rotation_up": 61.42, "upward_expansion": 47.59, "deceleration": 45.22, "rotation_down": 19.4, "downward_expansion": 10.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.668, 23.873788, 23.856549, 24.027546 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 25.040001, "trend_reference": 23.913713, "distance_from_trend": 0.047098, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.191946, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.181581, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 9.581648, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.123878, "excess_performance": 0.167082, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.047098, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017959, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.181581, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064945, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.095816, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.141025, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.123878, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.412906, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 228757538, "relative_activity": 1.199006, "balance": 3.412906, "dry_up": 1.308806, "accumulation_observations": 7, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07842, "annualized_volatility": 0.379932, "from_high_reference": -0.103794, "from_low_reference": 0.269133 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.913713, "fair_value_reference": 21.191946, "structural_low": 20.530001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.004488, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.002514, "regime_survival": 0.466667, "best_return": 0.331546, "worst_return": -0.083802, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.026463, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.001333, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.303411, "worst_return": -0.143521, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.060036, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.059407, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.540361, "worst_return": -0.106515, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.404523, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.347799, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.781098, "worst_return": -0.128968, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.193411, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.075205, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.0415, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.066428, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.096597, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.09895, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.062123, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.085564, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.039543, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.087156, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.009768, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.173021, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.146704, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009678, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 14.691622, "volume": 108468838, "typical_volume": 168598413.45, "trend": 14.991935, "fair_value": 11.171312, "relative_strength": -8.107834, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": 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"modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.678545, "energy": 34.444395, "activity_lines": [ 22.74692, 23.15171, 23.692426, 23.802889 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.700001, "volume": 306886029, "typical_volume": 200699261.35, "trend": 23.682379, "fair_value": 21.05973, "relative_strength": 12.199683, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 5.633723, "energy": 4.376669, "activity_lines": [ 23.549334, 23.402998, 23.730086, 23.874778 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.799999, "volume": 200692180, "typical_volume": 191854276.65, "trend": 23.789713, "fair_value": 21.123673, "relative_strength": 11.859952, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.954014, "energy": 17.331273, "activity_lines": [ 24.205333, 23.638946, 23.77846, 23.946883 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.040001, "volume": 228757538, "typical_volume": 190789349.35, "trend": 23.913713, "fair_value": 21.191946, "relative_strength": 9.581648, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.332353, "energy": 26.989883, "activity_lines": [ 24.668, 23.873788, 23.856549, 24.027546 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }