{ "ticker": { "uuid": "585d335a-4137-4a88-80cd-f3d85fbb35d6", "symbol": "MNSO", "name": "Miniso Group Holding\u00a0Ltd", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.555, "architecture_energy": 30.736, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 81.013, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.88, "rotation_up": 27.79, "upward_expansion": 22.32, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 30.67, "downward_expansion": 60.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.578, 12.354545, 12.865694, 13.693593 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 12.55, "trend_reference": 15.000281, "distance_from_trend": -0.163349, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.561293, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.323862, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.989965, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.320429, "excess_performance": -0.446054, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.163349, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.135805, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.323862, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100465, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.3699, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059424, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.320429, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.615832, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2469849, "relative_activity": 0.893752, "balance": 0.615832, "dry_up": 1.234759, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079559, "annualized_volatility": 0.284302, "from_high_reference": -0.513745, "from_low_reference": 0.128597 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.000281, "fair_value_reference": 18.561293, "structural_low": 11.12, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.047004, "positive_rate": 0.578947, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": 0.011904, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.936508, "worst_return": -0.30921, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.023718, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.01207, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 1.445652, "worst_return": -0.175729, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.067674, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.079916, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 2.251984, "worst_return": -0.31924, "sufficient": true 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"relative_strength": -37.086408, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.173065, "energy": 57.697652, "activity_lines": [ 12.151333, 12.224182, 13.061082, 14.022892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.0, "volume": 2826126, "typical_volume": 2736950.65, "trend": 15.226505, "fair_value": 18.591203, "relative_strength": -33.168136, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.937313, "energy": 40.721023, "activity_lines": [ 12.492667, 12.325455, 12.976915, 13.866271 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.55, "volume": 2469849, "typical_volume": 2763461.85, "trend": 15.000281, "fair_value": 18.561293, "relative_strength": -36.989965, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.555062, "energy": 30.735677, "activity_lines": [ 12.578, 12.354545, 12.865694, 13.693593 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }