{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5861aa6b-1ab1-41b8-ba88-5f5e501f0312", "symbol": "600999", "name": "China Merchants Securities Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.017, "architecture_energy": 24.826, "architecture_maturity": 62.186, "architecture_confidence": 87.384, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.72, "rotation_up": 26.45, "upward_expansion": 58.4, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 30.99, "downward_expansion": 19.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.351221, 18.82961, 18.09482, 17.567023 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 18.200001, "trend_reference": 17.092012, "distance_from_trend": 0.064825, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.955179, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.140696, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.48469, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.063705, "excess_performance": 0.106909, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.064825, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040525, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.140696, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.115311, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.064847, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.201118, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.063705, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.64997, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 317715970, "relative_activity": 1.090552, "balance": 0.64997, "dry_up": 1.482917, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079911, "annualized_volatility": 0.289591, "from_high_reference": -0.162935, "from_low_reference": 0.219022 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.092012, "fair_value_reference": 15.955179, "structural_low": 14.93, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.002631, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.001762, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.096261, "worst_return": -0.094225, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.026286, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.019524, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.075504, "worst_return": -0.089404, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.002857, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.021703, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.418808, "worst_return": -0.151299, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.094461, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.041201, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01816, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.001195, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066043, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": 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"fair_value": 15.893336, "relative_strength": 12.308027, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.560509, "energy": 55.53318, "activity_lines": [ 19.468493, 19.082895, 17.957728, 17.454874 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.59, "volume": 432044965, "typical_volume": 284512837.85, "trend": 17.040012, "fair_value": 15.922273, "relative_strength": 5.650213, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.141842, "energy": 29.593803, "activity_lines": [ 18.726523, 18.903071, 18.001059, 17.492185 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.200001, "volume": 317715970, "typical_volume": 291334917.05, "trend": 17.092012, "fair_value": 15.955179, "relative_strength": 6.48469, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.01719, "energy": 24.826156, "activity_lines": [ 18.351221, 18.82961, 18.09482, 17.567023 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }