{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5862a8ef-3a9d-4fa3-83d2-56c072a7c2a4", "symbol": "HYPD", "name": "Hyperion DeFi, Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.762, "architecture_energy": 55.301, "architecture_maturity": 19.432, "architecture_confidence": 94.923, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.19, "rotation_up": 14.1, "upward_expansion": 11.97, "deceleration": 38.66, "rotation_down": 60.53, "downward_expansion": 85.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.677333, 2.820545, 3.092714, 3.221118 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.7, "trend_reference": 3.345333, "distance_from_trend": -0.192906, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 41.826988, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.935448, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -50.75011, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.347826, "excess_performance": -0.53528, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.192906, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.112487, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.935448, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002668, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.507501, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032295, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.347826, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.695382, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 980730, "relative_activity": 0.433162, "balance": 0.695382, "dry_up": 0.490756, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.254746, "annualized_volatility": 0.816776, "from_high_reference": -0.82, "from_low_reference": 0.153846 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.345333, "fair_value_reference": 41.826988, "structural_low": 2.34, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.064885, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.589744, "median_excess_return": -0.066203, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 1.378531, "worst_return": -0.820691, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.156191, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.097343, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 10.925926, "worst_return": -0.890521, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.109043, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.257847, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 5.731481, "worst_return": -0.97639, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.137295, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.215993, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.420807, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.566667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.191223, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", 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"fair_value": 46.16936, "relative_strength": -49.852441, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.857258, "energy": 24.002097, "activity_lines": [ 3.112667, 3.163091, 3.375333, 3.420151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.74, "volume": 1087214, "typical_volume": 2409093.65, "trend": 3.441, "fair_value": 45.043334, "relative_strength": -51.506108, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.089691, "energy": 34.266895, "activity_lines": [ 2.997333, 3.070364, 3.310667, 3.372925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.51, "volume": 1092961, "typical_volume": 2403440.2, "trend": 3.396667, "fair_value": 43.961988, "relative_strength": -53.764398, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.641197, "energy": 44.801468, "activity_lines": [ 2.804, 2.951455, 3.224476, 3.31286 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.64, "volume": 1283617, "typical_volume": 2378563.55, "trend": 3.365333, "fair_value": 42.876347, "relative_strength": -50.557858, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.826218, "energy": 50.333634, "activity_lines": [ 2.716667, 2.871636, 3.153524, 3.264043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.7, "volume": 980730, "typical_volume": 2264118.9, "trend": 3.345333, "fair_value": 41.826988, "relative_strength": -50.75011, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.762045, "energy": 55.301338, "activity_lines": [ 2.677333, 2.820545, 3.092714, 3.221118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }