{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5865b634-857a-44e6-8d52-f7c455ffe3dc", "symbol": "603216", "name": "Mengtian Home Group Inc.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.211, "architecture_energy": 63.98, "architecture_maturity": 80.795, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.78, "rotation_up": 28.68, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.55, "rotation_down": 54.56, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.931333, 20.386295, 22.692736, 25.793705 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 20.65, "trend_reference": 30.867928, "distance_from_trend": -0.331021, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.347805, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.263167, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.56093, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.562222, "excess_performance": -0.519018, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.331021, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07265, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.263167, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.661141, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.225609, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.359889, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.562222, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.26884, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20135700, "relative_activity": 1.147498, "balance": 0.26884, "dry_up": 1.118935, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.114509, "annualized_volatility": 0.318531, "from_high_reference": -0.649048, "from_low_reference": 0.628549 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.867928, "fair_value_reference": 16.347805, "structural_low": 17.290001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.004051, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.004956, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.190126, "worst_return": -0.107679, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.04906, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.003318, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.14442, "worst_return": -0.095994, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.034612, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.058011, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.212254, "worst_return": -0.042925, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"typical_volume": 18001559.75, "trend": 33.397595, "fair_value": 16.169414, "relative_strength": -23.385769, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.872464, "energy": 84.071063, "activity_lines": [ 21.156897, 22.397519, 25.533123, 29.120268 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.48, "volume": 14773000, "typical_volume": 17263599.35, "trend": 32.939262, "fair_value": 16.213239, "relative_strength": -22.555897, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.571836, "energy": 84.614361, "activity_lines": [ 20.481952, 21.599571, 24.6648, 28.222358 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.6, "volume": 22028691, "typical_volume": 17068015.35, "trend": 32.358595, "fair_value": 16.250077, "relative_strength": -27.300769, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.564689, "energy": 78.015882, "activity_lines": [ 19.726, 20.831967, 23.806334, 27.297245 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.15, "volume": 21600613, "typical_volume": 17161873.55, "trend": 31.746262, "fair_value": 16.298132, "relative_strength": -21.950929, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.333933, "energy": 66.09895, "activity_lines": [ 19.725333, 20.511623, 23.188345, 26.509593 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.65, "volume": 20135700, "typical_volume": 17547483.55, "trend": 30.867928, "fair_value": 16.347805, "relative_strength": -22.56093, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.211298, "energy": 63.980047, "activity_lines": [ 19.931333, 20.386295, 22.692736, 25.793705 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }