{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5865f718-3eea-4b7c-9d51-9e82c7bb0020", "symbol": "INFU", "name": "Amundi US Inflation Expectations 10Y UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 67.601, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.986, "architecture_energy": 55.607, "architecture_maturity": 47.427, "architecture_confidence": 64.322, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.82, "rotation_up": 53.91, "upward_expansion": 82.75, "deceleration": 64.44, "rotation_down": 26.17, "downward_expansion": 9.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 122.768667, 122.635455, 121.76181, 120.89785 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 121.830002, "trend_reference": 119.623, "distance_from_trend": 0.01845, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 118.424103, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.02876, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.823765, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.04611, "excess_performance": -0.124781, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.01845, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016217, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.02876, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012848, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.118238, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012685, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.04611, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.728787, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3868, "relative_activity": 0.841171, "balance": 0.728787, "dry_up": 0.731241, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.008896, "annualized_volatility": 0.065093, "from_high_reference": -0.019398, "from_low_reference": 0.062255 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 119.623, "fair_value_reference": 118.424103, "structural_low": 115.050003, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.005338, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.008034, "regime_survival": 0.794118, "best_return": 0.067998, "worst_return": -0.055345, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.020158, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.030412, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.090349, "worst_return": -0.072384, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.00926, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.089277, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.135623, "worst_return": -0.053119, "sufficient": 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.027079, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016785, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010255, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.010395, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.016748, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": 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"typical_volume": 5642.85, "trend": 118.708334, "fair_value": 118.116795, "relative_strength": -10.674034, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.140773, "energy": 85.190936, "activity_lines": [ 122.404, 121.824364, 120.818429, 119.906108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 122.860001, "volume": 1059, "typical_volume": 5638.5, "trend": 118.938334, "fair_value": 118.200129, "relative_strength": -8.988952, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.554823, "energy": 85.779578, "activity_lines": [ 122.646667, 122.095819, 121.090572, 120.173957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 124.239998, "volume": 4083, "typical_volume": 5435.8, "trend": 119.236667, "fair_value": 118.284808, "relative_strength": -7.517854, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.038505, "energy": 93.028082, "activity_lines": [ 123.223999, 122.554727, 121.459476, 120.516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 122.790001, "volume": 4440, "typical_volume": 4741.65, "trend": 119.464667, "fair_value": 118.361026, "relative_strength": -8.856744, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.317577, "energy": 77.669626, "activity_lines": [ 123.172, 122.697818, 121.663286, 120.745248 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 121.830002, "volume": 3868, "typical_volume": 4598.35, "trend": 119.623, "fair_value": 118.424103, "relative_strength": -11.823765, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.985698, "energy": 55.606948, "activity_lines": [ 122.768667, 122.635455, 121.76181, 120.89785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }