{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5869f438-da6c-43df-a241-74b106282d32", "symbol": "CNDXN", "name": "iShares VII Public Limited Company - iShares NASDAQ 100 UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 35.731, "architecture_energy": 29.817, "architecture_maturity": 66.813, "architecture_confidence": 93.581, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.86, "rotation_up": 25.96, "upward_expansion": 58.92, "deceleration": 88.32, "rotation_down": 34.8, "downward_expansion": 20.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 28693.709114, 29013.209872, 28918.647749, 28147.365856 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 29157.519531, "trend_reference": 27182.536589, "distance_from_trend": 0.072656, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22388.532884, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.302342, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.758381, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.174414, "excess_performance": 0.22908, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.072656, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035994, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.302342, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043051, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.067584, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064132, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.174414, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.657661, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3062, "relative_activity": 0.659516, "balance": 2.657661, "dry_up": 1.235031, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030862, "annualized_volatility": 0.174724, "from_high_reference": -0.046517, "from_low_reference": 0.216748 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27182.536589, "fair_value_reference": 22388.532884, "structural_low": 23963.490234, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.014219, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.032463, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.133134, "worst_return": -0.080107, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.003052, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.101875, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.164299, "worst_return": -0.210609, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.072878, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.021216, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.230212, "worst_return": -0.201984, "sufficient": false }, { 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.05124, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.068164, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030669, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012576, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.042637, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", 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"energy": 33.371314, "activity_lines": [ 29002.054557, 29307.368111, 28788.292736, 27950.708119 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28036.75, "volume": 17277, "typical_volume": 4509.45, "trend": 27100.345963, "fair_value": 22295.875451, "relative_strength": 2.676541, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.112645, "energy": 27.556053, "activity_lines": [ 28614.453906, 29045.215767, 28806.643266, 28014.644981 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29157.519531, "volume": 3062, "typical_volume": 4642.8, "trend": 27182.536589, "fair_value": 22388.532884, "relative_strength": 6.758381, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.730859, "energy": 29.816616, "activity_lines": [ 28693.709114, 29013.209872, 28918.647749, 28147.365856 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }