{ "ticker": { "uuid": "58704b2b-f292-44d7-92b9-ac30010a5407", "symbol": "RI", "name": "Pernod Ricard SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 53.904, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 14.757, "architecture_energy": 25.269, "architecture_maturity": 20.701, "architecture_confidence": 41.49, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.86, "rotation_up": 45.39, "upward_expansion": 34.12, "deceleration": 45.72, "rotation_down": 19.63, "downward_expansion": 47.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 66.662338, 64.843376, 64.142614, 65.365531 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 70.32, "trend_reference": 68.107877, "distance_from_trend": 0.03248, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 103.661508, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.321638, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.765491, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.126677, "excess_performance": -0.179988, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.03248, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058668, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.321638, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.116393, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.117655, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.101841, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.126677, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.851366, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3274618, "relative_activity": 1.134625, "balance": 1.851366, "dry_up": 1.111567, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049403, "annualized_volatility": 0.304429, "from_high_reference": -0.326056, "from_low_reference": 0.2 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 68.107877, "fair_value_reference": 103.661508, "structural_low": 58.599998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.037648, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.266667, "median_excess_return": -0.040902, "regime_survival": 0.466667, "best_return": 0.072347, "worst_return": -0.140949, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.11138, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.066042, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.087458, "worst_return": -0.178776, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.205284, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.228514, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.148518, "worst_return": -0.309001, "sufficient": true }, { 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.520824, "energy": 35.11564, "activity_lines": [ 62.557115, 62.601788, 63.117436, 65.258633 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 68.0, "volume": 3424868, "typical_volume": 2961509.35, "trend": 68.248543, "fair_value": 104.337058, "relative_strength": -13.336298, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.816095, "energy": 7.932008, "activity_lines": [ 64.370623, 63.541127, 63.51831, 65.231889 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 70.32, "volume": 3274618, "typical_volume": 2886079.8, "trend": 68.107877, "fair_value": 103.661508, "relative_strength": -11.765491, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 14.756572, "energy": 25.268755, "activity_lines": [ 66.662338, 64.843376, 64.142614, 65.365531 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }