{ "ticker": { "uuid": "587816c9-18dd-49cd-89f2-a2547806691d", "symbol": "5KI", "name": "Soup Holdings Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.338, "architecture_energy": 34.865, "architecture_maturity": 89.556, "architecture_confidence": 83.178, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.29, "rotation_up": 23.01, "upward_expansion": 4.09, "deceleration": 59.87, "rotation_down": 45.29, "downward_expansion": 75.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.044133, 0.044545, 0.049299, 0.053897 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.048, "trend_reference": 0.059982, "distance_from_trend": -0.199763, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.069635, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.310692, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -41.85826, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.311038, "excess_performance": -0.465873, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.199763, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.157037, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.310692, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.123833, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.418583, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.150147, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.311038, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.552135, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 836300, "relative_activity": 0.526558, "balance": 0.552135, "dry_up": 0.280342, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.271234, "annualized_volatility": 0.673205, "from_high_reference": -0.492343, "from_low_reference": 2.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.059982, "fair_value_reference": 0.069635, "structural_low": 0.016, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.014284, "positive_rate": 0.37931, "directional_follow_through": 0.551724, "median_excess_return": -0.020932, "regime_survival": 0.758621, "best_return": 0.176465, "worst_return": -0.150683, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.080559, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.088398, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.15475, "worst_return": -0.22168, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.051887, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.074193, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.107432, "worst_return": -0.186657, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.07999, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.101451, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.073315, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.061552, "active": 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"relative_strength": -46.859491, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.984463, "energy": 65.301327, "activity_lines": [ 0.045533, 0.049122, 0.054662, 0.05899 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.038, "volume": 711900, "typical_volume": 1655315.0, "trend": 0.063511, "fair_value": 0.070238, "relative_strength": -53.884081, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.433067, "energy": 65.960542, "activity_lines": [ 0.042533, 0.0466, 0.052602, 0.057273 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.042, "volume": 12900, "typical_volume": 1629305.0, "trend": 0.062091, "fair_value": 0.069971, "relative_strength": -49.202977, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.342368, "energy": 45.918045, "activity_lines": [ 0.0416, 0.045182, 0.051126, 0.055886 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.044, "volume": 219900, "typical_volume": 1548515.0, "trend": 0.060738, "fair_value": 0.06979, "relative_strength": -46.608829, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.402268, "energy": 41.175422, "activity_lines": [ 0.042133, 0.0444, 0.049958, 0.054718 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.048, "volume": 836300, "typical_volume": 1588240.0, "trend": 0.059982, "fair_value": 0.069635, "relative_strength": -41.85826, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.338268, "energy": 34.86518, "activity_lines": [ 0.044133, 0.044545, 0.049299, 0.053897 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }