{ "ticker": { "uuid": "587a7c48-e3a6-421e-9642-b63cef34aeba", "symbol": "600127", "name": "Jinjian Cereals Industry Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -29.083, "architecture_energy": 24.031, "architecture_maturity": 78.43, "architecture_confidence": 83.229, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.57, "rotation_up": 30.48, "upward_expansion": 20.1, "deceleration": 44.16, "rotation_down": 25.89, "downward_expansion": 65.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.781333, 5.640364, 5.880905, 6.143849 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 6.32, "trend_reference": 6.435, "distance_from_trend": -0.017871, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.785641, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.068622, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.07681, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.131868, "excess_performance": -0.088664, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.017871, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062045, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.068622, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046071, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.040768, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066866, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.131868, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.101705, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 173762008, "relative_activity": 1.706267, "balance": 1.101705, "dry_up": 0.892037, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059761, "annualized_volatility": 0.327699, "from_high_reference": -0.189744, "from_low_reference": 0.236791 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.435, "fair_value_reference": 6.785641, "structural_low": 5.11, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.014249, "positive_rate": 0.481481, "directional_follow_through": 0.518519, "median_excess_return": -0.0171, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.163001, "worst_return": -0.14, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.016774, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.008001, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.206376, "worst_return": -0.14121, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.001477, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.019853, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.10608, "worst_return": -0.181319, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.068881, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.051235, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.039535, "worst_return": -0.125, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.09781, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.044961, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.031989, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.114011, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018721, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016871, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.029276, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.08637, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.04812, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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130109154.15, "trend": 6.544, "fair_value": 6.822628, "relative_strength": -13.064947, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.432355, "energy": 85.968404, "activity_lines": [ 5.44, 5.589273, 6.035143, 6.283613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.45, "volume": 53366759, "typical_volume": 115046815.15, "trend": 6.494, "fair_value": 6.809167, "relative_strength": -15.388205, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.372944, "energy": 75.188638, "activity_lines": [ 5.452, 5.530545, 5.94481, 6.213032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.55, "volume": 51639369, "typical_volume": 102487607.1, "trend": 6.448333, "fair_value": 6.795641, "relative_strength": -13.740109, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.886524, "energy": 58.030376, "activity_lines": [ 5.501333, 5.508727, 5.871905, 6.152129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.32, "volume": 173762008, "typical_volume": 101837496.95, "trend": 6.435, "fair_value": 6.785641, "relative_strength": -4.07681, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.082627, "energy": 24.031381, "activity_lines": [ 5.781333, 5.640364, 5.880905, 6.143849 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }