{ "ticker": { "uuid": "587ecfb4-68f2-4674-b931-7c2a651a499e", "symbol": "ETL", "name": "Eutelsat Communications S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 83.235, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -26.126, "architecture_energy": 44.702, "architecture_maturity": 19.303, "architecture_confidence": 75.75, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.63, "rotation_up": 15.85, "upward_expansion": 23.01, "deceleration": 52.22, "rotation_down": 65.87, "downward_expansion": 52.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.0784, 2.217218, 2.524157, 2.508843 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 2.044, "trend_reference": 2.451667, "distance_from_trend": -0.166281, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.417395, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.401884, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.866154, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.028979, "excess_performance": -0.08229, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.166281, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02277, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.401884, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.156665, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.268662, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.260352, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.028979, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.319118, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19298427, "relative_activity": 1.741813, "balance": 1.319118, "dry_up": 1.050793, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.247479, "annualized_volatility": 0.825806, "from_high_reference": -0.551361, "from_low_reference": 0.285535 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.451667, "fair_value_reference": 3.417395, "structural_low": 1.852, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.039397, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.052648, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": -0.000612, "worst_return": -0.212973, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.134557, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.169608, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.276746, "worst_return": -0.437824, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.041451, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.006124, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.139048, "worst_return": -0.102446, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.278981, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.271959, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.144033, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.219695, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.032569, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003212, "active": false }, { "regime": 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2.605028 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.357, "volume": 7908144, "typical_volume": 11811084.45, "trend": 2.410933, "fair_value": 3.520363, "relative_strength": -15.528889, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.179269, "energy": 21.238935, "activity_lines": [ 2.4204, 2.715164, 2.726881, 2.602544 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.152, "volume": 7520977, "typical_volume": 11590430.05, "trend": 2.428, "fair_value": 3.495408, "relative_strength": -21.985186, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.634938, "energy": 31.812229, "activity_lines": [ 2.3078, 2.581982, 2.684081, 2.585839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.009, "volume": 8411365, "typical_volume": 11224576.65, "trend": 2.438033, "fair_value": 3.468318, "relative_strength": -26.627405, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.269052, "energy": 44.175316, "activity_lines": [ 2.199867, 2.434473, 2.628152, 2.558806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.067, "volume": 11338278, "typical_volume": 11198886.3, "trend": 2.4474, "fair_value": 3.442658, "relative_strength": -25.00477, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.235294, "energy": 44.188038, "activity_lines": [ 2.138867, 2.312218, 2.577505, 2.534869 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.044, "volume": 19298427, "typical_volume": 11079504.35, "trend": 2.451667, "fair_value": 3.417395, "relative_strength": -26.866154, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.125776, "energy": 44.701851, "activity_lines": [ 2.0784, 2.217218, 2.524157, 2.508843 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }