{ "ticker": { "uuid": "587f8980-68bf-474e-a6a4-8dc9b9da4f81", "symbol": "HAUZ", "name": "DBX ETF TRUST XTRACKERS INTERNATIONAL REAL ESTATE ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 70.036, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -16.817, "architecture_energy": 14.869, "architecture_maturity": 16.652, "architecture_confidence": 70.463, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.43, "rotation_up": 36.47, "upward_expansion": 25.75, "deceleration": 39.17, "rotation_down": 17.97, "downward_expansion": 46.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.008907, 22.844751, 22.890946, 23.032115 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 23.1748, "trend_reference": 23.321093, "distance_from_trend": -0.006273, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.646776, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.122442, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.627083, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.051122, "excess_performance": -0.176747, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.006273, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001405, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.122442, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058162, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.106271, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039814, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.051122, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.835712, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 408830, "relative_activity": 0.850433, "balance": 1.835712, "dry_up": 0.892387, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02778, "annualized_volatility": 0.185799, "from_high_reference": -0.08943, "from_low_reference": 0.068737 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.321093, "fair_value_reference": 20.646776, "structural_low": 21.684282, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.003696, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.012997, "regime_survival": 0.466667, "best_return": 0.07372, "worst_return": -0.058972, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.01515, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.035322, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.100586, "worst_return": -0.04902, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.004586, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.074379, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.192996, "worst_return": -0.111803, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.031686, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.14919, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.169215, "worst_return": -0.296239, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.02768, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.024976, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030079, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.06546, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.038404, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.04248, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005064, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.068331, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.013783, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", 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"typical_volume": 525521.85, "trend": 23.347535, "fair_value": 20.559392, "relative_strength": -8.635948, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.312417, "energy": 22.664995, "activity_lines": [ 22.732227, 22.668456, 22.863431, 23.097492 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.72, "volume": 417142, "typical_volume": 522738.9, "trend": 23.333621, "fair_value": 20.583922, "relative_strength": -8.841047, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.824971, "energy": 18.07206, "activity_lines": [ 22.76392, 22.674432, 22.842515, 23.057006 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.11, "volume": 347180, "typical_volume": 511712.95, "trend": 23.336993, "fair_value": 20.614486, "relative_strength": -8.047951, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.28803, "energy": 16.436787, "activity_lines": [ 22.896947, 22.755849, 22.864451, 23.042579 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.1748, "volume": 408830, "typical_volume": 480731.6, "trend": 23.321093, "fair_value": 20.646776, "relative_strength": -10.627083, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.817333, "energy": 14.868826, "activity_lines": [ 23.008907, 22.844751, 22.890946, 23.032115 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }