{ "ticker": { "uuid": "588157a4-4b2c-4368-821b-41da450213ad", "symbol": "139220", "name": "Mirae Asset TIGER Constructions & Machinery ETF", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 77.916, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -34.124, "architecture_energy": 45.482, "architecture_maturity": 12.397, "architecture_confidence": 66.166, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.59, "rotation_up": 18.7, "upward_expansion": 15.96, "deceleration": 48.17, "rotation_down": 65.14, "downward_expansion": 57.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 7018.0, 7352.090909, 8102.683712, 8170.776749 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 7295.0, "trend_reference": 7928.973828, "distance_from_trend": -0.079957, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4233.261885, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.723257, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.267883, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.217389, "excess_performance": -0.012439, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.079957, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.150563, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.723257, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.050865, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.032679, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.127535, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.217389, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.537068, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3080942, "relative_activity": 0.30423, "balance": 0.537068, "dry_up": 0.427467, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.162176, "annualized_volatility": 0.591135, "from_high_reference": -0.333181, "from_low_reference": 0.853752 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7928.973828, "fair_value_reference": 4233.261885, "structural_low": 5570.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.074673, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.071067, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.151007, "worst_return": -0.001661, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.024203, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.024797, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.024917, "worst_return": 0.02349, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.011031, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.005348, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.024917, "worst_return": -0.04698, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 7233.333333, 7738.0, 8409.246798, 8279.313048 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6645.0, "volume": 5820610, "typical_volume": 10368701.0, "trend": 7846.298275, "fair_value": 4207.3183, "relative_strength": -16.638167, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.22619, "energy": 54.301871, "activity_lines": [ 6977.333333, 7459.909091, 8223.147866, 8206.34438 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7295.0, "volume": 3080942, "typical_volume": 10127007.05, "trend": 7928.973828, "fair_value": 4233.261885, "relative_strength": -3.267883, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.124404, "energy": 45.482279, "activity_lines": [ 7018.0, 7352.090909, 8102.683712, 8170.776749 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }