{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5887f5b9-d219-4ee3-833f-9b457afaa7ea", "symbol": "601969", "name": "Hainan Mining Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.437, "architecture_energy": 36.368, "architecture_maturity": 83.841, "architecture_confidence": 84.346, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.44, "rotation_up": 27.3, "upward_expansion": 18.09, "deceleration": 46.85, "rotation_down": 35.2, "downward_expansion": 65.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.807333, 8.658909, 9.286831, 9.895507 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 9.17, "trend_reference": 10.604069, "distance_from_trend": -0.135238, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.779281, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.178772, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.477197, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.267894, "excess_performance": -0.22469, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.135238, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074481, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.178772, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.390008, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.094772, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.215581, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.267894, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.929555, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 83616093, "relative_activity": 0.784336, "balance": 0.929555, "dry_up": 1.186128, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096972, "annualized_volatility": 0.502507, "from_high_reference": -0.356665, "from_low_reference": 0.191097 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.604069, "fair_value_reference": 7.779281, "structural_low": 7.7, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.005708, "positive_rate": 0.48, "directional_follow_through": 0.52, "median_excess_return": -0.003418, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.205357, "worst_return": -0.167672, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.003526, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.015086, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.263838, "worst_return": -0.191674, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.021106, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.041802, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.243177, "worst_return": -0.325238, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.202827, "energy": 77.85335, "activity_lines": [ 8.240667, 8.663818, 9.665938, 10.25507 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.46, "volume": 172340476, "typical_volume": 135972514.55, "trend": 10.784076, "fair_value": 7.745435, "relative_strength": -13.627667, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.951789, "energy": 58.907584, "activity_lines": [ 8.287333, 8.537636, 9.477276, 10.101044 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.12, "volume": 113937268, "typical_volume": 116968568.45, "trend": 10.691749, "fair_value": 7.762043, "relative_strength": -7.353582, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.526643, "energy": 51.149399, "activity_lines": [ 8.578, 8.581455, 9.369318, 9.993684 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.17, "volume": 83616093, "typical_volume": 106607499.3, "trend": 10.604069, "fair_value": 7.779281, "relative_strength": -9.477197, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.436676, "energy": 36.367549, "activity_lines": [ 8.807333, 8.658909, 9.286831, 9.895507 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }