{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "5890ffd9-751d-41f1-8bdb-a8817e403134",
    "symbol": "ZEM",
    "name": "BMO MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF",
    "exchange": "TOR",
    "country": "CA",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GSPTSE",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 84.149,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 26.653,
    "architecture_energy": 23.831,
    "architecture_maturity": 65.671,
    "architecture_confidence": 85.589,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 52.34,
        "rotation_up": 21.31,
        "upward_expansion": 54.39,
        "deceleration": 91.11,
        "rotation_down": 35.28,
        "downward_expansion": 18.06
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        32.556667,
        33.120546,
        32.972762,
        32.196366
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 33.040001,
    "trend_reference": 31.217333,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.058386,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 23.17431,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.425717,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 1.207259,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.12038,
    "excess_performance": -4.1e-05,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.058386,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.073338,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.425717,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.097934,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.012073,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.107195,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.12038,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.185444,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 342800,
      "relative_activity": 1.00828,
      "balance": 1.185444,
      "dry_up": 1.252702,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.049916,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.260252,
      "from_high_reference": -0.084764,
      "from_low_reference": 0.381459
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 31.217333,
      "fair_value_reference": 23.17431,
      "structural_low": 27.219999,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 10,
        "median_return": 3e-06,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.013903,
        "regime_survival": 0.6,
        "best_return": 0.091469,
        "worst_return": -0.046689,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.028932,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": 0.008984,
        "regime_survival": 0.4,
        "best_return": 0.071952,
        "worst_return": -0.018079,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.059907,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.012089,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.285357,
        "worst_return": 0.010331,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.118765,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.010024,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.184658,
        "worst_return": 0.052872,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-04",
        "end": "2024-11-08",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.02124,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-11-15",
        "end": "2024-12-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.020947,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-01-03",
        "end": "2025-01-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.029439,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-01-17",
        "end": "2025-02-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.026279,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-02-21",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.016393,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-04-18",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.001459,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-25",
        "end": "2025-05-09",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.040692,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-16",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.021166,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-05-30",
        "end": "2025-12-05",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.225618,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-12-12",
        "end": "2026-01-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.081049,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-01-16",
        "end": "2026-03-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.039903,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-04-03",
        "end": "2026-04-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.108434,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-04-24",
        "end": "2026-07-17",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.022422,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-07-24",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.027683,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "typical_volume": 73970.0,
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        "fair_value": 21.611237,
        "relative_strength": 4.723533,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 68.821649,
        "energy": 40.190084,
        "activity_lines": [
          29.593333,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "typical_volume": 478140.0,
        "trend": 28.275569,
        "fair_value": 21.785845,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 491505.0,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.3016,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 515070.0,
        "trend": 28.876625,
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        "relative_strength": 7.344466,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 68.026572,
        "energy": 72.125316,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 520695.0,
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        "activity_lines": [
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          30.078461
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "volume": 118900,
        "typical_volume": 503500.0,
        "trend": 29.265438,
        "fair_value": 22.273549,
        "relative_strength": 6.908789,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 63.793284,
        "energy": 53.51625,
        "activity_lines": [
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          30.295599
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 484995.0,
        "trend": 29.485077,
        "fair_value": 22.375478,
        "relative_strength": 9.728722,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "fair_value": 22.492746,
        "relative_strength": 14.602709,
        "stage": 2,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 34.279999,
        "volume": 116800,
        "typical_volume": 419355.0,
        "trend": 30.038003,
        "fair_value": 22.599779,
        "relative_strength": 10.111047,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 65.300225,
        "energy": 68.064354,
        "activity_lines": [
          34.268667,
          33.602,
          32.170048,
          31.278396
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 34.490002,
        "volume": 55500,
        "typical_volume": 386110.0,
        "trend": 30.298496,
        "fair_value": 22.708693,
        "relative_strength": 9.678936,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.272334,
        "energy": 69.287481,
        "activity_lines": [
          34.438668,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 34.02,
        "volume": 615100,
        "typical_volume": 391055.0,
        "trend": 30.553103,
        "fair_value": 22.810792,
        "relative_strength": 7.766101,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 63.333114,
        "energy": 59.02991,
        "activity_lines": [
          34.398001,
          33.988001,
          32.743429,
          31.805718
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 31.92,
        "volume": 551800,
        "typical_volume": 383460.0,
        "trend": 30.730863,
        "fair_value": 22.900737,
        "relative_strength": 1.14882,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 46.7305,
        "energy": 33.618656,
        "activity_lines": [
          33.552667,
          33.676182,
          32.780238,
          31.893905
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 32.150002,
        "volume": 439500,
        "typical_volume": 344405.0,
        "trend": 30.914333,
        "fair_value": 22.987343,
        "relative_strength": 1.491659,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 38.301427,
        "energy": 22.013341,
        "activity_lines": [
          32.916668,
          33.432183,
          32.833286,
          31.985463
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 32.209999,
        "volume": 369500,
        "typical_volume": 341955.0,
        "trend": 31.066667,
        "fair_value": 23.077126,
        "relative_strength": 1.998074,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 30.225284,
        "energy": 23.961216,
        "activity_lines": [
          32.529334,
          33.198546,
          32.872857,
          32.069054
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 33.040001,
        "volume": 342800,
        "typical_volume": 339985.0,
        "trend": 31.217333,
        "fair_value": 23.17431,
        "relative_strength": 1.207259,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 26.65282,
        "energy": 23.831327,
        "activity_lines": [
          32.556667,
          33.120546,
          32.972762,
          32.196366
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}