{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5895f5b2-4537-4d72-b1da-475e4bd496b2", "symbol": "FXC", "name": "iShares China Large Cap UCITS ETF USD (Dist)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 83.086, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -2.165, "architecture_energy": 26.408, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 39.369, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.04, "rotation_up": 50.83, "upward_expansion": 30.74, "deceleration": 38.43, "rotation_down": 15.22, "downward_expansion": 51.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 88.812665, 86.484978, 86.594841, 87.36352 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 89.949997, "trend_reference": 88.970024, "distance_from_trend": 0.011015, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 79.929195, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.125371, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.704808, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.049464, "excess_performance": -0.220356, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011015, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037796, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.125371, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028174, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.167048, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021265, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.049464, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.654852, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7631, "relative_activity": 0.202763, "balance": 0.654852, "dry_up": 0.569076, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03328, "annualized_volatility": 0.186661, "from_high_reference": -0.114766, "from_low_reference": 0.149668 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 88.970024, "fair_value_reference": 79.929195, 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"energy": 54.208507, "activity_lines": [ 83.280001, 83.985601, 85.875321, 87.332372 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 87.769997, "volume": 17573, "typical_volume": 44476.65, "trend": 89.391281, "fair_value": 79.662586, "relative_strength": -16.545945, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.268844, "energy": 27.1637, "activity_lines": [ 84.970667, 84.497599, 85.945954, 87.215591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 90.93, "volume": 19297, "typical_volume": 41193.0, "trend": 89.195823, "fair_value": 79.787627, "relative_strength": -13.736187, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.200301, "energy": 19.256133, "activity_lines": [ 87.427333, 85.613691, 86.316939, 87.314863 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 89.949997, "volume": 7631, "typical_volume": 37635.1, "trend": 88.970024, "fair_value": 79.929195, "relative_strength": -16.704808, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.164717, "energy": 26.408487, "activity_lines": [ 88.812665, 86.484978, 86.594841, 87.36352 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }