{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "5899734e-2ff3-4e5a-b07e-3b66107404a9",
    "symbol": "0340",
    "name": "Tongguan Gold Group Limited",
    "exchange": "HKG",
    "country": "HK",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-09-04",
    "benchmark": "^HSI",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 66.564,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_up",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up",
    "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": 44.444,
    "architecture_energy": 79.861,
    "architecture_maturity": 26.0,
    "architecture_confidence": 84.426,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 17.63,
        "rotation_up": 79.57,
        "upward_expansion": 63.59,
        "deceleration": 14.85,
        "rotation_down": 14.0,
        "downward_expansion": 33.92
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        3.371333,
        2.911,
        2.537015,
        2.576509
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 3.55,
    "trend_reference": 2.716017,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.307061,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 1.447999,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 1.45166,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 28.707567,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.0,
    "excess_performance": 0.004132,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.307061,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.055578,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.45166,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.943026,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.287076,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.539848,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.0,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.914781,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 119561289,
      "relative_activity": 2.432471,
      "balance": 1.914781,
      "dry_up": 2.46207,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.096091,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.727432,
      "from_high_reference": -0.142512,
      "from_low_reference": 1.125749
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 2.716017,
      "fair_value_reference": 1.447999,
      "structural_low": 1.67,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.075002,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.163273,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.483334,
        "worst_return": -0.08772,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.0625,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.011268,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 3.133337,
        "worst_return": -0.105262,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.6,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.69982,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 2.617091,
        "worst_return": -0.105262,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.368203,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.313505,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.561403,
        "worst_return": 0.175002,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-04-19",
        "end": "2024-07-05",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.030305,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-07-12",
        "end": "2024-10-18",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.076923,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-10-25",
        "end": "2025-02-07",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.05319,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-02-14",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.010203,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "violet",
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        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.266667,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-07-18",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 1.51807,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-07-25",
        "end": "2025-09-12",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.122549,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.183486,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-12-19",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.021352,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2026-04-03",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.065744,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2026-05-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.192073,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-05-22",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.077253,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2026-08-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.389015,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "return": 0.062874,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "typical_volume": 7322492.05,
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      },
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      {
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      {
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      },
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      },
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        "date": "2026-07-31",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
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        "stage": 4,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-14",
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        "typical_volume": 36228500.45,
        "trend": 2.696684,
        "fair_value": 1.390004,
        "relative_strength": 3.712312,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": 3.611958,
        "energy": 26.174008,
        "activity_lines": [
          2.439667,
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          2.2203,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-21",
        "close": 3.34,
        "volume": 93615180,
        "typical_volume": 37405956.55,
        "trend": 2.691684,
        "fair_value": 1.408097,
        "relative_strength": 21.961726,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 52.105707,
        "energy": 56.382881,
        "activity_lines": [
          2.797333,
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          2.310869,
          2.459844
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-28",
        "close": 3.65,
        "volume": 174015563,
        "typical_volume": 44556123.8,
        "trend": 2.700017,
        "fair_value": 1.428432,
        "relative_strength": 33.954647,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 56.779967,
        "energy": 79.255518,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.156333,
          2.701455,
          2.429724,
          2.521671
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-09-04",
        "close": 3.55,
        "volume": 119561289,
        "typical_volume": 49152196.75,
        "trend": 2.716017,
        "fair_value": 1.447999,
        "relative_strength": 28.707567,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 44.443904,
        "energy": 79.860964,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.371333,
          2.911,
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          2.576509
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}