{ "ticker": { "uuid": "589f063e-b286-492f-8996-390da5c3b9da", "symbol": "200581", "name": "Weifu High-Technology Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.714, "architecture_energy": 60.983, "architecture_maturity": 73.549, "architecture_confidence": 83.688, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.79, "rotation_up": 28.68, "upward_expansion": 15.8, "deceleration": 58.69, "rotation_down": 47.5, "downward_expansion": 75.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.91894, 11.947316, 12.517353, 13.006679 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 11.67, "trend_reference": 13.578639, "distance_from_trend": -0.140562, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.273445, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.035176, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.191937, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.196834, "excess_performance": -0.204234, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.140562, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052961, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.035176, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.271625, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.181919, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036185, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.196834, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.788958, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1434160, "relative_activity": 1.165959, "balance": 0.788958, "dry_up": 1.195267, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044987, "annualized_volatility": 0.235027, "from_high_reference": -0.244171, "from_low_reference": 0.023211 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.578639, "fair_value_reference": 11.273445, "structural_low": 11.405272, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.006656, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": 0.016579, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.129737, "worst_return": -0.123974, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.067407, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.004711, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.179775, "worst_return": -0.121102, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.042365, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.057882, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.402273, "worst_return": -0.160128, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 1313317.05, "trend": 13.787973, "fair_value": 11.201924, "relative_strength": -14.149364, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.661148, "energy": 86.918021, "activity_lines": [ 11.817601, 12.222908, 12.90977, 13.348653 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.09, "volume": 1540585, "typical_volume": 1275444.1, "trend": 13.728973, "fair_value": 11.227244, "relative_strength": -12.915694, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.664669, "energy": 80.258085, "activity_lines": [ 11.894834, 12.123286, 12.777202, 13.239106 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.12, "volume": 1468196, "typical_volume": 1234177.05, "trend": 13.663639, "fair_value": 11.252075, "relative_strength": -11.046777, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.337786, "energy": 60.027048, "activity_lines": [ 11.996348, 12.062756, 12.66173, 13.135301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.67, "volume": 1434160, "typical_volume": 1230025.8, "trend": 13.578639, "fair_value": 11.273445, "relative_strength": -18.191937, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.713572, "energy": 60.982621, "activity_lines": [ 11.91894, 11.947316, 12.517353, 13.006679 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }