{ "ticker": { "uuid": "589f9d40-bd5a-4ed5-9dc4-17008cf9aa18", "symbol": "002051", "name": "China CAMC Engineering Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 49.834, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.199, "architecture_energy": 48.105, "architecture_maturity": 8.699, "architecture_confidence": 67.269, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.08, "rotation_up": 14.76, "upward_expansion": 24.64, "deceleration": 50.25, "rotation_down": 61.87, "downward_expansion": 49.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.86, 9.549338, 10.142265, 10.0535 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 9.22, "trend_reference": 9.795372, "distance_from_trend": -0.058739, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.492057, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.08572, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.026405, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.048919, "excess_performance": 0.041519, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.058739, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045202, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.08572, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.28196, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.040264, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122235, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.048919, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.646158, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 172703502, "relative_activity": 0.625982, "balance": 1.646158, "dry_up": 0.596707, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.167245, "annualized_volatility": 0.655669, "from_high_reference": -0.336028, "from_low_reference": 0.159748 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.795372, "fair_value_reference": 8.492057, "structural_low": 7.95, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.012903, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.074213, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.017291, "worst_return": 0.008516, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.072213, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.030099, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.06691, "worst_return": -0.211335, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.067702, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.006541, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.114355, "worst_return": -0.24976, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.04228, 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"gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.360135, "energy": 22.128611, "activity_lines": [ 9.802025, 10.445855, 10.552901, 10.237507 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.23, "volume": 148159944, "typical_volume": 270154288.3, "trend": 9.790372, "fair_value": 8.514996, "relative_strength": -11.60306, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.420112, "energy": 36.380943, "activity_lines": [ 9.024667, 9.998098, 10.354086, 10.134838 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.1, "volume": 181825131, "typical_volume": 272372936.75, "trend": 9.790372, "fair_value": 8.501901, "relative_strength": -0.536438, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.441565, "energy": 45.448556, "activity_lines": [ 8.798667, 9.749506, 10.242223, 10.090298 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.22, "volume": 172703502, "typical_volume": 275892319.85, "trend": 9.795372, "fair_value": 8.492057, "relative_strength": -4.026405, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.199309, "energy": 48.105107, "activity_lines": [ 8.86, 9.549338, 10.142265, 10.0535 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }