{ "ticker": { "uuid": "58a10a50-e778-4b19-94b0-8d2e612f8634", "symbol": "TELIA", "name": "Telia Company AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 65.656, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -44.723, "architecture_energy": 59.799, "architecture_maturity": 8.198, "architecture_confidence": 72.171, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.5, "rotation_up": 16.87, "upward_expansion": 20.41, "deceleration": 44.06, "rotation_down": 73.74, "downward_expansion": 64.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.328021, 45.374957, 46.809035, 46.820563 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 43.610001, "trend_reference": 46.024928, "distance_from_trend": -0.05247, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.900988, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.367042, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.6481, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.023753, "excess_performance": -0.037741, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.05247, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070245, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.367042, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.270137, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.066481, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.217284, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.023753, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.431656, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29861408, "relative_activity": 1.11564, "balance": 0.431656, "dry_up": 1.198104, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051228, "annualized_volatility": 0.217043, "from_high_reference": -0.156153, "from_low_reference": 0.318335 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.024928, "fair_value_reference": 31.900988, "structural_low": 42.558565, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.059628, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.029798, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.046752, "worst_return": -0.088023, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.101706, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.150547, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.014034, "worst_return": -0.217446, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.092579, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.1146, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.099241, "worst_return": -0.2844, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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44.580002, "volume": 34515603, "typical_volume": 27615808.75, "trend": 45.664107, "fair_value": 31.572386, "relative_strength": -1.113651, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.29786, "energy": 41.74062, "activity_lines": [ 45.290497, 46.642293, 47.512713, 47.060424 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.18, "volume": 27497746, "typical_volume": 27174118.2, "trend": 45.843748, "fair_value": 31.738676, "relative_strength": -3.474947, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.327674, "energy": 54.968187, "activity_lines": [ 44.773048, 46.002443, 47.182195, 46.964675 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.610001, "volume": 29861408, "typical_volume": 26766173.15, "trend": 46.024928, "fair_value": 31.900988, "relative_strength": -6.6481, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.722896, "energy": 59.799278, "activity_lines": [ 44.328021, 45.374957, 46.809035, 46.820563 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }