{ "ticker": { "uuid": "58a4b814-6a8c-4b14-a3f0-d257662eaf61", "symbol": "AADA", "name": "21Shares Cardano ETP", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.439, "architecture_energy": 46.682, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.115, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.51, "rotation_up": 27.86, "upward_expansion": 21.09, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 36.13, "downward_expansion": 66.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.752127, 2.65946, 2.945788, 3.238468 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.0776, "trend_reference": 3.70319, "distance_from_trend": -0.168933, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.66301, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.644742, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -54.979028, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.281153, "excess_performance": -0.334464, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.168933, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.269192, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.644742, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072351, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.54979, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010277, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.281153, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.037056, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14488, "relative_activity": 6.637194, "balance": 1.037056, "dry_up": 1.787686, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096879, "annualized_volatility": 0.735152, "from_high_reference": -0.806328, "from_low_reference": 0.370502 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.70319, "fair_value_reference": 8.66301, "structural_low": 2.2456, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.034178, "positive_rate": 0.434783, "directional_follow_through": 0.565217, "median_excess_return": -0.029778, "regime_survival": 0.869565, "best_return": 2.078046, "worst_return": -0.345708, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.068343, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.044823, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 2.192256, "worst_return": -0.300002, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.227517, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.195242, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.635295, "worst_return": -0.370915, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.485245, "energy": 68.596127, "activity_lines": [ 2.540547, 2.679944, 3.11795, 3.461258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.5974, "volume": 90, "typical_volume": 1443.25, "trend": 3.918737, "fair_value": 8.692987, "relative_strength": -62.715971, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.533957, "energy": 64.63322, "activity_lines": [ 2.566713, 2.617345, 3.036926, 3.369683 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.6167, "volume": 931, "typical_volume": 1470.45, "trend": 3.809403, "fair_value": 8.676545, "relative_strength": -61.958815, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.448217, "energy": 59.320057, "activity_lines": [ 2.594973, 2.583871, 2.965393, 3.285681 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.0776, "volume": 14488, "typical_volume": 2182.85, "trend": 3.70319, "fair_value": 8.66301, "relative_strength": -54.979028, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.439477, "energy": 46.681516, "activity_lines": [ 2.752127, 2.65946, 2.945788, 3.238468 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }