{ "ticker": { "uuid": "58a6e8e5-bfaa-4efe-99d7-3762900dbfd5", "symbol": "NMI", "name": "Nuveen Municipal Income Fund", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 54.804, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 34.22, "architecture_energy": 19.886, "architecture_maturity": 27.1, "architecture_confidence": 75.49, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.67, "rotation_up": 24.33, "upward_expansion": 52.39, "deceleration": 86.91, "rotation_down": 25.69, "downward_expansion": 18.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.798032, 10.835641, 10.765856, 10.596084 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 10.7976, "trend_reference": 10.369471, "distance_from_trend": 0.041287, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.203671, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.173184, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.336356, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.079966, "excess_performance": -0.045659, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.041287, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036403, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.173184, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025293, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.043364, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026808, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.079966, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.57218, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 126523, "relative_activity": 1.052277, "balance": 0.57218, "dry_up": 0.838233, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035678, "annualized_volatility": 0.200196, "from_high_reference": -0.03607, "from_low_reference": 0.164687 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.369471, "fair_value_reference": 9.203671, "structural_low": 9.692726, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.002077, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008231, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.027351, "worst_return": -0.030516, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.032191, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.032439, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.078123, "worst_return": -0.034913, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.028663, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.013314, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.119223, "worst_return": -0.032774, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.026316, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004059, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033904, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.032005, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.022069, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.027474, "active": false 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"typical_volume": 124873.25, "trend": 10.274056, "fair_value": 9.154497, "relative_strength": -1.038752, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.565598, "energy": 26.232146, "activity_lines": [ 10.838629, 10.857686, 10.686538, 10.500626 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.77, "volume": 122137, "typical_volume": 122108.75, "trend": 10.307781, "fair_value": 9.169954, "relative_strength": -0.392506, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.462688, "energy": 22.726022, "activity_lines": [ 10.80239, 10.844796, 10.714562, 10.532622 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.8377, "volume": 84591, "typical_volume": 120327.15, "trend": 10.343861, "fair_value": 9.186575, "relative_strength": -0.735712, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.674624, "energy": 19.926647, "activity_lines": [ 10.802783, 10.845176, 10.74455, 10.56681 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.7976, "volume": 126523, "typical_volume": 120237.4, "trend": 10.369471, "fair_value": 9.203671, "relative_strength": -4.336356, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.220294, "energy": 19.885841, "activity_lines": [ 10.798032, 10.835641, 10.765856, 10.596084 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }