{ "ticker": { "uuid": "58ada64b-1b10-41ca-9778-f29bad6ee5b2", "symbol": "PANACEABIO", "name": "Panacea Biotec Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 85.879, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 10.719, "architecture_energy": 25.547, "architecture_maturity": 57.865, "architecture_confidence": 86.49, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.19, "rotation_up": 17.27, "upward_expansion": 56.03, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 44.48, "downward_expansion": 24.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 447.913334, 486.916365, 470.484763, 440.817635 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 413.0, "trend_reference": 408.581666, "distance_from_trend": 0.010814, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 316.946795, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.303058, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.136539, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.137271, "excess_performance": 0.18098, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.010814, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.119479, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.303058, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051062, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.021365, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008377, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.137271, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.734744, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 971401, "relative_activity": 0.872701, "balance": 1.734744, "dry_up": 1.00613, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.129736, "annualized_volatility": 0.54919, "from_high_reference": -0.285034, "from_low_reference": 0.412449 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 408.581666, "fair_value_reference": 316.946795, "structural_low": 292.399994, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.028946, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.042714, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.381944, "worst_return": -0.148303, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.031593, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.050084, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.433329, "worst_return": -0.275249, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.10649, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.20308, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.150131, "worst_return": -0.475514, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.002064, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.082659, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.35097, "worst_return": -0.655076, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.12018, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.727391, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.181918, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.056925, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038526, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.091744, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035444, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.008914, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02363, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.207372, 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"activity_lines": [ 513.386662, 520.307273, 473.164762, 439.583656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 421.450012, "volume": 674791, "typical_volume": 1089364.85, "trend": 408.355, "fair_value": 315.17532, "relative_strength": 5.026124, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.073204, "energy": 23.260203, "activity_lines": [ 477.533333, 504.406366, 472.45643, 440.517957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 413.0, "volume": 971401, "typical_volume": 1113097.1, "trend": 408.581666, "fair_value": 316.946795, "relative_strength": 2.136539, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.718585, "energy": 25.54654, "activity_lines": [ 447.913334, 486.916365, 470.484763, 440.817635 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }