{ "ticker": { "uuid": "58b0c89b-fa5f-410c-85e0-aa935440973d", "symbol": "IMD", "name": "Imdex Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 65.337, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -29.675, "architecture_energy": 46.437, "architecture_maturity": 4.822, "architecture_confidence": 60.258, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.16, "rotation_up": 17.43, "upward_expansion": 17.01, "deceleration": 44.91, "rotation_down": 62.55, "downward_expansion": 56.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.731333, 3.827273, 3.92181, 3.926742 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.87, "trend_reference": 3.91016, "distance_from_trend": -0.010271, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.72766, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.418799, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.237499, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.136172, "excess_performance": 0.072467, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.010271, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045709, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.418799, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.16491, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.002375, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.19121, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.136172, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.624917, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5276314, "relative_activity": 1.110311, "balance": 0.624917, "dry_up": 1.260374, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076526, "annualized_volatility": 0.335773, "from_high_reference": -0.15344, "from_low_reference": 0.358032 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.91016, "fair_value_reference": 2.72766, "structural_low": 3.271719, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.313819, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.302678, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.35525, "worst_return": 0.272388, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.362542, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.338756, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.369834, "worst_return": 0.35525, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.384283, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.355485, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.444688, "worst_return": 0.323878, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.018382, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.085821, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039088, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.005989, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.164557, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.011548, "active": false 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"fair_value": 2.692161, "relative_strength": -1.123682, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.205015, "energy": 21.089845, "activity_lines": [ 3.876667, 3.966182, 3.989013, 3.961532 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.59, "volume": 6048346, "typical_volume": 4742792.55, "trend": 3.895197, "fair_value": 2.703306, "relative_strength": -1.743316, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.725063, "energy": 40.494509, "activity_lines": [ 3.75, 3.888545, 3.952143, 3.942131 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.69, "volume": 6585817, "typical_volume": 4788042.95, "trend": 3.90333, "fair_value": 2.714567, "relative_strength": -1.575865, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.013145, "energy": 47.361326, "activity_lines": [ 3.696667, 3.836364, 3.927857, 3.928892 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.87, "volume": 5276314, "typical_volume": 4752103.9, "trend": 3.91016, "fair_value": 2.72766, "relative_strength": -0.237499, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.675472, "energy": 46.436901, "activity_lines": [ 3.731333, 3.827273, 3.92181, 3.926742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }