{ "ticker": { "uuid": "58baa5e4-b6e2-447b-a377-b694f2da92ce", "symbol": "SINTERCOM", "name": "Sintercom India Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 59.482, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 22.858, "architecture_energy": 37.642, "architecture_maturity": 8.937, "architecture_confidence": 63.221, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.01, "rotation_up": 58.41, "upward_expansion": 41.5, "deceleration": 24.39, "rotation_down": 15.29, "downward_expansion": 25.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 82.249334, 79.872364, 78.389096, 78.686753 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 83.739998, "trend_reference": 80.775, "distance_from_trend": 0.036707, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 121.364167, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.310011, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.372718, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.131148, "excess_performance": -0.087438, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.036707, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110329, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.310011, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056569, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.113727, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.133339, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.131148, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.651664, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 91205, "relative_activity": 0.376663, "balance": 4.651664, "dry_up": 1.429884, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074856, "annualized_volatility": 0.446131, "from_high_reference": -0.355846, "from_low_reference": 0.329417 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 80.775, "fair_value_reference": 121.364167, "structural_low": 62.990002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.005079, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.006017, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.216132, "worst_return": -0.061592, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.028217, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.008149, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.352437, "worst_return": -0.091383, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.026807, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.026928, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.278851, "worst_return": -0.140612, "sufficient": true }, { 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.094837, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.061118, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.29266, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.128022, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.118059, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01326, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.042389, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.091383, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.353394, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020722, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 127.199997, "volume": 67393, "typical_volume": 41610.0, "trend": 109.33, "fair_value": 90.713141, "relative_strength": 15.898637, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established 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"activity_lines": [ 76.404667, 76.148727, 76.562572, 78.785914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 78.110001, "volume": 1007417, "typical_volume": 261877.05, "trend": 82.534667, "fair_value": 122.188398, "relative_strength": -18.635229, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.645692, "energy": 15.877035, "activity_lines": [ 77.060001, 76.416364, 76.628286, 78.445592 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 82.040001, "volume": 152167, "typical_volume": 244394.4, "trend": 81.868334, "fair_value": 121.918141, "relative_strength": -11.769791, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.391436, "energy": 8.053944, "activity_lines": [ 78.774667, 77.414182, 77.113667, 78.413678 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 83.690002, "volume": 134138, "typical_volume": 238103.3, "trend": 81.329001, "fair_value": 121.637949, "relative_strength": -11.553268, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 2.999201, "energy": 16.753543, "activity_lines": [ 80.818668, 78.680364, 77.766763, 78.531205 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 83.739998, "volume": 91205, "typical_volume": 242139.75, "trend": 80.775, "fair_value": 121.364167, "relative_strength": -11.372718, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.85809, "energy": 37.641504, "activity_lines": [ 82.249334, 79.872364, 78.389096, 78.686753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }