{ "ticker": { "uuid": "58bbb171-dc00-4b56-a1c3-88927a8c5700", "symbol": "NBB", "name": "Nuveen Taxable Municipal Income Fund", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 76.645, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.967, "architecture_energy": 51.466, "architecture_maturity": 2.518, "architecture_confidence": 90.336, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.66, "rotation_up": 13.42, "upward_expansion": 13.29, "deceleration": 35.66, "rotation_down": 62.27, "downward_expansion": 84.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.311602, 15.393419, 15.479281, 15.488856 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 15.4, "trend_reference": 15.50029, "distance_from_trend": -0.00647, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.18057, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.085993, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.149039, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.001407, "excess_performance": -0.127032, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.00647, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000885, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.085993, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045021, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.11149, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032011, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.001407, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.785172, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 236601, "relative_activity": 0.989092, "balance": 0.785172, "dry_up": 0.984106, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020091, "annualized_volatility": 0.101699, "from_high_reference": -0.038154, "from_low_reference": 0.049921 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.50029, "fair_value_reference": 14.18057, "structural_low": 14.677726, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.003002, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.000289, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.094429, "worst_return": -0.086702, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.006395, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.002011, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.10851, "worst_return": -0.168381, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.01754, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.050939, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.048005, "worst_return": -0.109069, "sufficient": false }, { 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"trend": 15.502387, "fair_value": 14.122109, "relative_strength": -8.354248, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.035051, "energy": 11.004316, "activity_lines": [ 15.483644, 15.531992, 15.540799, 15.533766 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.2, "volume": 205171, "typical_volume": 249248.4, "trend": 15.501926, "fair_value": 14.14023, "relative_strength": -8.814082, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.373566, "energy": 35.5373, "activity_lines": [ 15.378749, 15.46736, 15.512574, 15.514258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.21, "volume": 251838, "typical_volume": 246458.45, "trend": 15.501798, "fair_value": 14.159842, "relative_strength": -9.43927, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.160336, "energy": 56.000676, "activity_lines": [ 15.302066, 15.41008, 15.487072, 15.495424 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.4, "volume": 236601, "typical_volume": 239210.35, "trend": 15.50029, "fair_value": 14.18057, "relative_strength": -11.149039, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.966961, "energy": 51.466138, "activity_lines": [ 15.311602, 15.393419, 15.479281, 15.488856 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }