{ "ticker": { "uuid": "58bbb408-f616-4154-8e5a-45305051ce09", "symbol": "FDX", "name": "FedEx Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 49.2, "architecture_energy": 41.342, "architecture_maturity": 63.439, "architecture_confidence": 68.663, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.56, "rotation_up": 36.48, "upward_expansion": 63.62, "deceleration": 70.65, "rotation_down": 26.91, "downward_expansion": 18.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 313.865333, 315.799582, 300.796293, 285.429438 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 318.57, "trend_reference": 264.910578, "distance_from_trend": 0.202557, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 181.688876, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.753382, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 28.860544, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.334627, "excess_performance": 0.209002, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.202557, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.208614, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.753382, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.29754, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.288605, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08536, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.334627, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.035075, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6636551, "relative_activity": 0.772186, "balance": 1.035075, "dry_up": 0.864015, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06675, "annualized_volatility": 0.366406, "from_high_reference": -0.074162, "from_low_reference": 1.265987 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 264.910578, "fair_value_reference": 181.688876, "structural_low": 221.49358, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.006265, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.013852, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.18701, "worst_return": -0.138972, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.119839, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.065597, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.333495, "worst_return": -0.244037, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.063378, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.060533, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.205158, "worst_return": -0.104125, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029354, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.093384, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.08451, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.086603, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.134901, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.006111, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.36763, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.085032, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.250713, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.036337, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 160.9888, "volume": 9241811, "typical_volume": 9475671.85, "trend": 140.749759, "fair_value": 141.637462, "relative_strength": 19.123377, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 314.69, "volume": 8619410, "typical_volume": 9193190.05, "trend": 248.769799, "fair_value": 177.805195, "relative_strength": 36.400386, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.485863, "energy": 61.876333, "activity_lines": [ 317.872492, 309.608471, 285.4791, 270.329733 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 312.98, "volume": 7383259, "typical_volume": 9140990.55, "trend": 252.97955, "fair_value": 178.791206, "relative_strength": 36.178219, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.255186, "energy": 54.96442, "activity_lines": [ 314.980937, 312.863145, 289.776673, 274.472327 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 314.96, "volume": 7760448, "typical_volume": 9041662.75, "trend": 257.092606, "fair_value": 179.75384, "relative_strength": 36.325535, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.971697, "energy": 45.365876, "activity_lines": [ 314.354667, 315.254968, 293.963788, 278.471066 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 307.4, "volume": 7922830, "typical_volume": 9050782.6, "trend": 261.022619, "fair_value": 180.690998, "relative_strength": 30.122915, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.699683, "energy": 40.034957, "activity_lines": [ 311.877333, 314.980351, 297.036556, 281.716704 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 318.57, "volume": 6636551, "typical_volume": 8594496.8, "trend": 264.910578, "fair_value": 181.688876, "relative_strength": 28.860544, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.199557, "energy": 41.341686, "activity_lines": [ 313.865333, 315.799582, 300.796293, 285.429438 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }