{ "ticker": { "uuid": "58bc6013-14f6-4151-b60d-069e7d9fe140", "symbol": "CSUD3", "name": "CSU Digital S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.036, "architecture_energy": 67.668, "architecture_maturity": 36.499, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.33, "rotation_up": 23.03, "upward_expansion": 13.69, "deceleration": 46.41, "rotation_down": 62.97, "downward_expansion": 89.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.283333, 14.542311, 15.503715, 16.191829 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 14.18, "trend_reference": 17.010222, "distance_from_trend": -0.166384, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.404526, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.079491, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.912527, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.235622, "excess_performance": -0.178574, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.166384, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04293, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.079491, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.201742, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.189125, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034151, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.235622, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.382302, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 148900, "relative_activity": 0.417204, "balance": 0.382302, "dry_up": 0.568857, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06013, "annualized_volatility": 0.23254, "from_high_reference": -0.283838, "from_low_reference": 0.034282 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.010222, "fair_value_reference": 15.404526, "structural_low": 13.71, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.000609, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.009224, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.16091, "worst_return": -0.18392, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.001883, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.01539, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.532547, "worst_return": -0.377952, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.010589, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.023829, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.272679, "worst_return": -0.261472, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 365750.0, "trend": 17.303999, "fair_value": 15.363851, "relative_strength": -17.780587, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.886047, "energy": 83.672441, "activity_lines": [ 14.604909, 15.264592, 16.200913, 16.771053 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.29, "volume": 170300, "typical_volume": 359115.0, "trend": 17.214129, "fair_value": 15.372842, "relative_strength": -20.100177, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.36608, "energy": 84.986075, "activity_lines": [ 14.462138, 14.987905, 15.954948, 16.576602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.2, "volume": 242700, "typical_volume": 360535.0, "trend": 17.129841, "fair_value": 15.388849, "relative_strength": -21.756502, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.760562, "energy": 78.092808, "activity_lines": [ 14.35, 14.738704, 15.720702, 16.382142 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.18, "volume": 148900, "typical_volume": 356900.0, "trend": 17.010222, "fair_value": 15.404526, "relative_strength": -18.912527, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.035841, "energy": 67.668074, "activity_lines": [ 14.283333, 14.542311, 15.503715, 16.191829 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }