{ "ticker": { "uuid": "58c09d5b-317e-410f-9b03-0809eb5b5c6f", "symbol": "XMVM", "name": "INVESCO EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR S&P MIDCAP VALUE WITH MOMENTUM ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 71.971, "architecture_energy": 85.059, "architecture_maturity": 38.618, "architecture_confidence": 78.323, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.38, "rotation_up": 81.24, "upward_expansion": 98.48, "deceleration": 39.76, "rotation_down": 10.3, "downward_expansion": 20.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 74.079547, 72.974172, 71.285704, 70.027911 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 74.3411, "trend_reference": 68.661005, "distance_from_trend": 0.082727, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 55.651579, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.335831, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.348694, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.069345, "excess_performance": -0.05628, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.082727, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046393, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.335831, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043125, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.013487, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012305, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.069345, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.094824, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 178660, "relative_activity": 1.381518, "balance": 2.094824, "dry_up": 1.115156, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0252, "annualized_volatility": 0.125576, "from_high_reference": -0.020784, "from_low_reference": 0.354578 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 68.661005, "fair_value_reference": 55.651579, "structural_low": 62.892159, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.013219, "positive_rate": 0.612903, "directional_follow_through": 0.612903, "median_excess_return": 0.003651, "regime_survival": 0.709677, "best_return": 0.094959, "worst_return": -0.114453, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.02622, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.019686, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.095786, "worst_return": -0.100926, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.070339, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.024394, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.161786, "worst_return": -0.110779, "sufficient": true }, { 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 74.1751, "volume": 94757, "typical_volume": 122987.0, "trend": 68.038186, "fair_value": 55.283687, "relative_strength": 6.263035, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.900585, "energy": 86.651585, "activity_lines": [ 72.91802, 71.787724, 70.257188, 69.224933 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 74.52, "volume": 195221, "typical_volume": 127517.85, "trend": 68.376757, "fair_value": 55.467998, "relative_strength": 5.34871, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.141522, "energy": 89.578902, "activity_lines": [ 73.627267, 72.451706, 70.805616, 69.643115 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 74.3411, "volume": 178660, "typical_volume": 129321.55, "trend": 68.661005, "fair_value": 55.651579, "relative_strength": 1.348694, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.971417, "energy": 85.059343, "activity_lines": [ 74.079547, 72.974172, 71.285704, 70.027911 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }