{ "ticker": { "uuid": "58c228cf-d501-4436-a95b-64d3dfc977dc", "symbol": "CHINA", "name": "UBS MSCI China A SF UCITS ETF USD acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 54.152, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 25.525, "architecture_energy": 25.283, "architecture_maturity": 64.061, "architecture_confidence": 79.295, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.83, "rotation_up": 21.01, "upward_expansion": 53.66, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 43.09, "downward_expansion": 22.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 152.841336, 154.610184, 154.492001, 152.514216 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 155.600006, "trend_reference": 149.866001, "distance_from_trend": 0.038261, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 119.09968, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.306469, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.624039, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.09017, "excess_performance": -0.080721, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.038261, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042389, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.306469, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034264, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.06624, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092263, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.09017, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.774399, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3215, "relative_activity": 0.618567, "balance": 1.774399, "dry_up": 0.845166, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031535, "annualized_volatility": 0.162045, "from_high_reference": -0.039921, "from_low_reference": 0.314078 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 149.866001, "fair_value_reference": 119.09968, "structural_low": 137.669998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.026347, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.0004, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.080343, "worst_return": -0.032095, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.0693, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.039035, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.126311, "worst_return": -0.108723, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.077229, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.085574, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.153011, "worst_return": -0.037833, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.096465, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.056465, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025565, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.131155, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.057482, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009913, "active": 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148.307667, "fair_value": 117.996667, "relative_strength": -3.252617, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.577815, "energy": 73.792097, "activity_lines": [ 159.024667, 157.821455, 154.42862, 151.780001 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 148.5, "volume": 5395, "typical_volume": 5234.4, "trend": 148.707334, "fair_value": 118.275898, "relative_strength": -7.682983, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.990265, "energy": 26.496177, "activity_lines": [ 155.610667, 156.297818, 154.157762, 151.792409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 152.419998, "volume": 4398, "typical_volume": 5233.55, "trend": 149.207667, "fair_value": 118.534872, "relative_strength": -5.132824, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.229765, "energy": 23.565336, "activity_lines": [ 153.911999, 155.594909, 154.250096, 152.031936 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 150.630005, "volume": 4563, "typical_volume": 5161.65, "trend": 149.547001, "fair_value": 118.784167, "relative_strength": -6.895397, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.722862, "energy": 22.188624, "activity_lines": [ 152.200001, 154.613455, 154.138953, 152.1237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 155.600006, "volume": 3215, "typical_volume": 5197.5, "trend": 149.866001, "fair_value": 119.09968, "relative_strength": -6.624039, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.524878, "energy": 25.283037, "activity_lines": [ 152.841336, 154.610184, 154.492001, 152.514216 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }